Buku 3 Executive Summary RUPTL 2015 2024E | Power Station ...
Short Description
The issues happened in 2014 were related to the operation of steam coal power plant FTP-1 PLN that has not been optimal ...
Description
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd ii
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd i
8/27/2015 4:30:20 PM
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd ii
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 1 2 2 3 4 5 9 10 11 20 25 28 31 33 37 40 41 41 42 43 43
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Purpose and Scope of RUPTL ........................................................................................................................ Business Growth and Present Conditions of Electricity Supply ............................................................. Short-term Response Efforts .......................................................................................................................... Availability of Primary Energy ......................................................................................................................... Power System Planning Policy and Design Criteria .................................................................................. Power Demand Forecasting ........................................................................................................................... Generation Expansion Planning .................................................................................................................... The Development Plan for Transmission and Substation ....................................................................... Investment Required ........................................................................................................................................ The Java-Bali System Development Plan..................................................................................................... The Sumatera System Development Plan ................................................................................................... The West Kalimantan Power System Development Plan ........................................................................ The South, Central, East and North Kalimantan System Development Plan ...................................... The North Sulawesi System Development Plan ........................................................................................ The South Sulawesi System Development Plan ........................................................................................ The Planning for the Development of Lombok System ........................................................................... The Development Plan for New and Renewable Energy ........................................................................ The Development Plan for Isolated Power Systems ................................................................................. CO2 Emission Projection .................................................................................................................................. Carbon Finance Project ................................................................................................................................... Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................
iii
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd iii
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd iv
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RUPTL 2015-2024
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF RUPTL The Power Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) by PT PLN (Persero) for the period of 2015-2024 has been issued to fulfill the mandate of the Government Regulation No.14/2012 on Power Supply Operations and to serve as a guidance for the development of power infrastructure to meet electricity demand within PLN business areas in an efficient and well-planned manner, in order to prevent inefficiencies from the beginning of the planning stage. RUPTL covers electricity demand load forecasts, generation capacity expansion plans and the development plans related to transmission, substations and distribution. Projected electricity demand has been prepared for each province and electricity system, including the electricity systems in remote islands across the region. Development plans for generating capacity, transmission and substation are also prepared in detail for their respective projects. Electricity demand forecasts are prepared to project the electricity needed to support economic growth targeted by the government by taking into account the population growth.
The development of transmission system is planned to obtain a balance between generation capacity and power requirements efficiently to meet certain reliability and quality criteria. In large electricity systems, such as Sumatera, Java and Sulawesi, an extra high voltage transmission line has been planned for the transmission systems in order to form the backbone of the electricity systems.
BUSINESS GROWTH AND PRESENT CONDITIONS OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY In the last six years, from 2009 up to 2014, PLN’s business has continued to grow. The electricity sale increased from 133.1 TWh in 2009 to 196.4 TWh in 2014, the number of customers increased from 39.8 million in 2009 to 57.1 million in 2014 and the electrification ratio increased from 63.5% in 2009 to 84.0% in 2014. The electricity condition by September 2014 can be described as follows: the installed capacity of power plants for both PLN and IPPs’ in Indonesia was 43,457 MW which consisted of 33,499 MW in the Java-Bali, 6,166 MW in Sumatera and 3,842 in East Indonesia. The total number of renting power plants is 3,640 MW. The generating capacity in Sumatera and East Indonesia is barely sufficient to meet the electricity needs of the community, hence, there can be a shortfall when there is a disruption to the power supply or a plant needs to undergo routine maintenance. For example, the electricity system in Northern part of Sumatera operates for almost the whole year without backup
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The development of generation capacity has been planned to meet the growing demand for electricity, the reserve margin and to the extent possible based on the principle of lowest cost. The utilization of local energy sources is also prioritized, especially renewable energy such as geothermal and hydropower. Several projects have been confirmed as undertaken as PLN projects or independent power producer (IPP) projects, whilst some projects have been designated as either a PLN or IPP projects. This is intended for PLN to decide a later stage, with the approval of the Government, whether a project is implemented as a PLN or IPP project.
1
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 1
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
operation and often experienced shortfalls in electricity supply, resulting in the operation of many diesel fuel generating plants. The South Sumatera system also experiences a similar issue, suffering from shortage of electricity for most of the year. This situation also occurs in several other areas, such as West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Southeast Sulawesi, Minahasa-Gorontalo, Palu, Lombok, Ambon, Ternate and Jayapura. The shortages were also observed in the other smaller electricity systems. Differently, in Java and Bali, there is enough generating capacity to meet the power requirements. The issues happened in 2014 were related to the operation of steam coal power plant FTP-1 PLN that has not been optimal and an over-loading of for many transformers, as well as the increasing transfer of power from Central Java / East Java to West Java resulted in a voltage drop in the system transmission during peak-load periods.
SHORT-TERM RESPONSE EFFORTS The urgent issue in supplying the electricity is to satisfy the demand for the areas that experience an electricity shortage, to replace the utilisation of diesel fuel oil with non-diesel fuel oil and to electrify the areas that still have gotten the electricity at all.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Several actions that have been taken in Sumatera and East Indonesia to overcome the issue for short time solution are conducting rental of generation capacity, purchasing the electricity from small-scale IPPs, doing partnership/co-operation with local governments, purchasing excess power, accelerating the development of coal-fired power plants as stipulated in PR71/2006, building transmission lines and securing continuity of primary energy supply and installing solar power plants. For the Java-Bali system, the short-term solution include an acceleration of the procurement of 150/20 kV transformer and 500/150 kV interbus, an addition of generating capacity in Bali, an acceleration of the commissioning of submarine cables in Java-Bali 150 kV circuits 3 and 4 and an installation of shunt capacitors in the Jakarta system to improve voltage levels.
AVAILABILITY OF PRIMARY ENERGY Coal resources of 120 billion tonnes and reserves of 28 billion tones in Indonesia are the basis for the planning of the development of coal power plants, both coastal power plants using coal at market prices, as well as mine-mouth power plants using low-rank coal at cost price plus margin. For natural gas, even though Indonesia has large reserves amounting to 165 TSCF, in reality there is insufficient gas available for power generation. In fact, the supply of gas to the existing power plants has been and will be declining such that a deficit in gas supply is expected if there is no new gas supply. In the year 2012, LNG supply from ex-Bontang via FSRU Jakarta has been commenced to operate power plants in Teluk Jakarta during peak load periods. The price of gas in LNG form is relatively high and is only economically viable if being used for generation at peak period. Experiencing such a gas supply situation, the RUPTL only plans for 2 units of 800 MW Combined cycle gas-fired power plant classes, with the expectation that one unit will received gas supply from the Cepu field, while the gas supply for the other unit is to be determined. LNG for power generation will also be developed in Arun, which will supply peaking power plants in Arun and Pangkalan Brandan and existing power plants in Belawan. Similarly for East Indonesia, power plants operated with LNG will also be built to serve peak load, some of the power plants are located in South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Kalimantan and Gorontalo.
2
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 2
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
For the utilisation of gas, the RUPTL plans a smaller number of peaking power plants that will utilize LNG or CNG in East Indonesia. The base load requirements will be met by the planned development of coal fired power plants and geothermal power plants as well as run of river hydro power plants, while gas will be used for peaking power plants wherever possible, to avoid the use of oil. A large number of plants utilizing renewable energy on large scale, such geothermal and hydro powers, have also been planned in the RUPTL.
POWER SYSTEM PLANNING POLICY AND DESIGN CRITERIA Interconnection System Power system planning is optimized from an economic perspective, with the objective of achieving a configuration of the development of plants which provide the lowest total NPV of the electricity supply cost, while still meeting certain reliability criteria. The cheapest configuration is obtained through an optimization process or objective function that includes capital costs, fuel costs, operation and maintenance costs and the cost of energy not served. Simulation and optimization is done by using a model called WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning).
In the Java-Bali system, the LOLP of < 0.274% is equivalent to a reserve margin of 25-30% of net generation capacity. When expressed in terms of installed capacity, the reserve margin required is approximately 35%. For East Indonesia and West Indonesia, the reserve margin is set at about 40%, considering that a smaller number of generating units, a larger unit size relative to peak load, a higher level of de-rating and a higher growth rate compared to Java Bali. As part of the optimization process, renewable energy generation capacity, particularly geothermal and hydropower, is treated as a ‘fixed system’ (permitted to enter the grid with no economic optimization required) at the time the project is put into commercial operation.
Small Non-Interconnected/Isolated Systems Power generation planning for isolated small systems do not apply probabilistic methods and the economic optimization process, but use the deterministic method. In this method, the planning was based on a N-2 criteria, i.e. the minimum reserve must be greater than the two largest generation units. The reserve is defined as the difference between the total generation capacity of existing power plants and peak load.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The reliability criteria used in the planning process is a Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) which is less than 0.274%. This means the probability of peak loads exceeding available generating capacity is less than 0.274%. Calculation of generation capacity based on the LOLP produces a reserve margin, which depends on the generation unit size, availability factor of each unit, number of units and type of units.
3
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 3
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
Transmission Planning Criteria The transmission planning is carried out using both static and dynamic reliability criteria N-1. The static N-1 criteria requires that if there is an outage in a transmission circuit due to a disruption or maintenance, the remaining transmission circuits must be able to distribute the overall load, so that the continuity of electrical power supply is maintained. The dynamic N-1 criteria requires that in the event of a three-phase short-circuit, followed by the loss of a transmission circuit, then there should not be a loss of synchronization between that group of generators and other groups of generators. Generally, the criteria applied in the RUPTL is that a need for additional transformer capacity is when the loading of the transformer reaches 70%-80%.
POWER DEMAND FORECASTING
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
In the period of 2015-2025, the electricity consumption in Indonesia is expected to increase from 219.1 TWh to 464.2 TWh, with an average growth of 8.7% per year, as shown in Figure-1. The number of costumers is projected to increase from 60.3 million in 2015 to 78.4 million by 2022, an increase of 2.2 million per annum. The additional customers will increase the electrification ratio from 87.7% to 99.4%. Regionally, the electricity demand in Java-Bali is expected to increase from 165.4 TWh to 324.4 TWh, growing at a rate of 7.8% per annum. The demand in East Indonesia is expected to increase from 22.6 TWh to 57.1 TWh, an average growth rate of 11.1% per annum. Whilst, the demand in Sumatera is expected to grow from 31.2 TWh to 82.8 TWh with an average growth rate of 11.6% per annum.
Firuge-1. Map of Power Demand Growth in Indonesia through year 2024
Figure-2 shows that in the Java-Bali system, the industrial customers account for the largest portion of total consumption with an average of 41.4% of total sales. In East Indonesia and Sumatera, the proportion of consumption by industrial customers is relatively smaller, at 12% and 14.7% respectively. By 2024, the residential customers would dominate sales, accounting for 55% of sales in East Indonesia and 59% in Sumatera.
4
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 4
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
350
500
Indonesia
450
Java-Bali 300
400 250
350 300
200
250
Industrial
200
Social
150
Commercial
Industrial
150
Social 100
Commercial
100 50
Residenal
50
Residenal
0
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2015
2024
90
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2021
2022
2023
2024
60
Sumatera
80
East Indonesia 50
70 60
40
Industrial Social
50
Industrial Social Commercial
40 30
30
Commercial 20
Residenal
20
Residenal
10
10 0
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Figure-2. Power Demand Growth Composition by Customer Group in Indonesia Regions
GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
20,000 0
16,000
Unallocated IPP PLN
12,000
14,526
0
8,000 0 1,716
4,000
0 1,475
2,885
3,776
4,794
0 2015
2016
2017
4,503
342
0 1,327 4,673
2,308
5,461
2018
2019
3,912
1,736
2,609
2,204
1,645
825
379
2020
2021
4,334 1,971
363
1,293 520
860
2022
2023
2024
Figure-3. Additional Generation Capacity Requirement
Figure-4 shows the additional generation capacity required, by plant type. New coal-fired power plants will dominate the additional generation capacity to be developed, accounting for 42.1 GW, or 59.8% of the planned additional capacity. Planned Combined cycle gas-fired power plants amount to 9.1 GW of capacity, or 13.0%. For renewable energy, the largest planned additional capacity relates
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
In order to satisfy the growing power demand, an additional generating capacity of 70.4 GW for the whole of Indonesia is required, or an average growth rate of 7 GW per annum, as shown in Figure-3. The RUPTL plans for PLN and IPPs to develop 21.4 GW and 35.5 GW of capacity respectively, with the remaining 13.5 GW are currently unallocated projects, i.e. projects where either developers or funding sources have not been established.
5
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 5
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
to hydropower at 9.3 GW, or 13.1% of the total additional capacity, followed by geothermal at 4.8 GW, or 6.8%, scattered isolated mini hydro with total capacity of 0.1 GW and other power plant with total additional capacity of 0.1 GW. Of this planned additional capacity, around 17.7 GW will be in West Indonesia and around 14.2 GW in East Indonesia. In Sumatera, there is a 510 MW hydroelectric project Batang Toru, to be developed by private sectors, and in East Indonesia there is also a 450 MW hydropower project Karama which will also be developed by private sectors. For the Java-Bali system, the additional power is about 38.5 GW, or an average of 3.2 GW per annum. 19,319
20,000
16,000
12,000 9,237 8,000
7,333 6,389
4,000
3,782
6,146 5,079
4,212
4,617
4,318
2015
2016
2017
2018
CFPP
HEPP
GeoPP
2019
2020
CCPP
2021
GT/GEPP
2022
2023
2024
Others
The energy mix for power generation in 2024 for Indonesia is projected to be 63.7% coal, 19.2% natural gas (including LNG), 9% geothermal, 6.6% hydroelectric and 1.5% oil and other fuels as shown in Figure-5. 600,000
500,000
400,000
GWh
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Figure-4. Additional Generation Capacity by Plant Type
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2015
Import
2016
Biomass
2017
2018
2019
HSD
MFO
LNG
2020
Gas
2021
Coal
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Figure-5. Projected Electricity Production by Fuel Type for Indonesia
6
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 6
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
Table-1 shows the energy mix for Indonesia from 2015 to 2024.
Table-1. Projected Primary Energy Requirement No
FUEL TYPE
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2,403
1,734
1,771
1,794
1,796
1,888
1,981
1
HSD ( x 10^3 kl )
6,722
5,509
3,559
2
MFO ( x 10^3 kl )
1,339
1,644
925
191
188
170
185
204
228
282
3
Gas (bcf)
503
525
571
531
467
389
372
367
372
382
4
LNG (bcf)
85
103
143
192
290
283
284
299
313
345
5
Coal (10^3 ton)
74
86
98
106
119
133
148
157
168
171
6
Biomass (10^3 ton)
34
46
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
43
The Development of Power Plants for the Period of 2015-2019 The requirement for additional generation in the next 5 years is 35 GW, excluding projects that are under construction which are 6.6 GW. It can be seen in Table-2.
Table-2. The Requirement for Additional Generation for the period of 2015-2019
Year
IPP’s Power Plant
Total Location
Total Capacity (MW)
Year
Total Location
Total Capacity (MW)
2015
26
2,438
2015
13
1,471
2016
40
2,348
2016
13
1,357
2017
43
4,830
2017
39
1,720
2018
30
3,777
2018
33
5,461
2019
17
4,414
2019
37
14,905
TOTAL
156
17,806
TOTAL
135
24,914
Based on Table-2 above, 6.6 GW of power plants capacity are under construction, 17 GW of power plants capacity are committed projects and 18,7 GW are in planning stage. Table-3 shown projects that are in planning stage.
Table-3. The requirement for Additional Power Plants by Project Status Developer
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
MW Total
Construction PLN
2,308
784
339
562
200
4,193
IPP
1,471
971
286
41
55
2,824
Sub-Total
3,779
1,755
625
603
255
7,017
Committed PLN
-
454
2,090
575
2,539
5,658
IPP
3
78
563
5,048
5,737
11,429
Sub-Total
3
532
2,653
5,623
8,276
17,087
PLN
-
1,610
2,251
2,640
1,675
8,175
IPP
-
315
861
372
9,113
10,661
Sub-Total
-
1,925
3,112
3,011
10,788
18,836
3,782
4,212
6,389
9,237
19,319
42,940
Plan
TOTAL
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
PLN’s Power Plant
7
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 7
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
The Development of Transmission Networks and Substation for the Period of 2015-2019 The additional transmission generation required for the next 5 years is 45 thousands kms while the need for additional substations is 109 thousands MVA. In detail, the development of transmission networks and substation are shown in Table-4 and Table-5.
Table-4 The Development of Transmission Networks for the Period of 2015-2019 TL 500 kV & 275 kV Year
TL 150 kV & 70 kV
Total Location
Total Length (kms)
Year
Total Location
Total Length (kms)
2015
16
2,324
2015
156
9,304
2016
9
901
2016
192
9,701
2017
12
964
2017
179
9,966
2018
19
2,168
2018
85
4,994
2019
27
2,679
2019
37
2,396
TOTAL
83
9,035
TOTAL
649
36,361
Table-5 The Development of Substation for the Period of 2015 - 2019 500 kV & 275 S/S
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Year
150 kV & 70 kV S/S
Total Location
Total Capacity (MVA)
Year
Total Location
Total Capacity (MVA)
2015
11
12,586
2015
105
14,080
2016
7
7,837
2016
100
13,516
2017
13
14,340
2017
111
12,070
2018
10
2,750
2018
68
17,760
2019
7
8,350
2019
40
5,500
TOTAL
48
45,863
TOTAL
424
62,926
The Development of Distribution Networks for the Period of 2015-2019 The additional distribution networks needed for the next 5 years consist of additional medium voltage networks of 82 thousands kms, distribution substation of 21 thousands MVA and 13,794 of new customers. In detail, the development is given in Table-6.
Tabel-6. The Development of Distribution for Period 2015-2019 Year
Medium Voltage (kms)
Distribution Substation (MVA)
Additional Customers (x1000)
2015
15,616
3,867
3,300
2016
16,542
4,090
3,233
2017
16,540
4,161
2,599
2018
16,520
4,290
2,482
2019
16,992
4,343
2,179
Government’s Supports for the establishment of the 35 GW Acceleration Program The successfulness of the 35 GW acceleration program for the next 5 years requires supports from the governments which include the following aspects: 1. To facilitate and accelerate approval of SLA and PKLN. 2. To approve direct loans from international development banks for PLN with warranty from the government.
8
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 8
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
To plan additional capital for PLN to increase investment capacity. To approve additional allocation of gas and LNG for PLN. To give dispensation of forestry permit (To give permit to do activities in forests while completion of the use permits are still in progress. To assign Perhutani as the endorsee of forestry users for buying replacement lands and for reforesting the lands. To issue jetty permit automatically if local governments have issued location permit/location determination permit. To simplify permit process related to electricity projects (there are 52 permits/recommendations/ technical considerations). To establish exclusive land procurement team for 35 GW program.
THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR TRANSMISSION AND SUBSTATION The planned development of the transmission system for the period 2015-2024 includes the development of the transmission system with a voltage of 500 kV and 150 kV in the Java-Bali system, and systems with voltage of 500 kV, 275 kV, 150 kV in Sumatera as well as 275 kV, 150 kV and 70 kV in East Indonesia. Generally, the construction of the transmission system looks to achieve compatibility between the upstream generation capacity and the downstream portion of the power demand in an efficient manner. In addition, it is also as an effort to overcome the bottleneck in transmission system and to improve transmission voltage.
12,000 • 500 kVAC: 5,829 kms • 500 kVDC: 1,543 kms
10,000
• 275 kVAC: 8,371 kms
8,000
• 150 kV
: 40,413 kms
• 70 kV
: 3,116 kms
Total 59,272 kms
6,000
4,000
2,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 70 kV
150 kV
250 kV DC
275 kV
500 kV DC
500 kV AC
Figure-6. The Requirement for the Development of Transmission Lines by Voltage
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The development of 500 kV transmission lines in Java-Bali is generally intended to transmit power from new and expansion plants and to maintain the N-1 reliability criteria, whether static or dynamic. On the other hand, the development of 150 kV transmission lines is intended to maintain the N-1 reliability criterion and the associated transmission, in relation to the new 150 kV substations.
9
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 9
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
30,000 • 500/275 kV: 5,000 MVA • 500/150 kV: 34,673 MVA
25,000
• 500 kV DC :
3,600 MVA
• 275/150 kV: 20,560 MVA • 150/70 kV :
20,000
690 MVA
• 150/20 kV : 78,426 MVA • 70/20 kV :
2,450 MVA
Total 145,399 MVA
15,000
10,000
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 70/20 kV
150/20 kV
150/70 kV
250 kV DC
275/150 kV
500 kV DC
500/150 kV
500/275 kV
Figure-7. The Requirement for the Development of Substations and Transformers by Voltage
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The development of 500 kV transmission line in Sumatera is intended to form the backbone of the transmission system, bringing together the interconnections in the eastern corridor of Sumatera. Large-scale power plants and load centers in Sumatera will be connected to this 500 kV transmission system. This transmission system also will transmit power from regions with rich and inexpensive primary energy sources (e.g. Sumbagsel and Riau) to regions which lack an affordable primary energy source (e.g. Sumbagut). In addition, a 500 kV transmission line will also be developed in South Sumatera as a feeder electricity supply from the mine mouth power plants to the converter station for the HVDC transmission line, which will connect Sumatera and Java. The development plan for the transmission system in Indonesia by 2024 involves a projected 59,272 kms and 145,399 MVA of substation and transformer as shown in Figure-6 and Figure-7.
INVESTMENT REQUIRED The development of generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure requires an investment of US$ 69.4 billion for only PLN projects and a total of US$ 132.2 billion when combined with the power projects expected to be implemented by the private sector / IPPs, with annual disbursements as shown in the Figure-8. To date, many PLN projects have been financed through loans obtained from overseas (two-step loan). However, since 2006 the role of this kind of financing has begun to decline and financing by issuing bonds (both local and global) has been increasing. The 10,000 MW Fast Track Project 1 was fully financed by loans to PLN, backed by a guarantee from the Government. Lately, PLN has once again tried to obtain loans from multilateral and bilateral financial institutions to fund power projects, such as the Upper Cisokan pumped storage and the Sumatera-Java HVDC transmission line.
10
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 10
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
Milliar USD 25.0
20.0 10.8
10.3 15.0
Power Plant PLN Power Plant IPP Transmission Distribution
: : : :
34,3 miliar US$ 62,8 miliar US$ 20,6 miliar US$ 14,5 miliar US$
Total Investment PLN Total Investment IPP Total PLN+IPP
: 69,4 miliar US$ : 62,8 miliar US$ : 132,2 miliar US$
9.5 6.6
10.0
5.0
5.8
3.0
8.2
10.1
9.7
4.4
5.1
5.6
5.9
2021
2022
2023
8.8 6.4
3.9
4.8
4.6
3.9 4.9
0.0 2015
2016
2017
2018
Total Investment (PLN) Transmission
2019
2020
Total Investment (PLN+IPP) Distribuon
2024
Power Plant (PLN+IPP) Power Plant (PLN)
Figure-8. The Investment Requirement for the Development of Electricity
The additional generation capacity to be developed over the period of 2015-2024 for the Java-Bali system is 38.5 GW, or an average increase in capacity of 3.8 GW per year, including small-scale minihydro power plants of 333 MW and wind power plants of 50 MW. The capacity of PLN will increase by as many as 8.6 GW, or 22% of the total planned additional capacity. Private sector participation represents a large proportion of the total planned additional capacity, i.e. 20.0 GW, or 52%, while unallocated projects amount to 10 GW, or 26%. Of the types of power generation, coal-fired power plants will represent the majority of additional capacity to be developed, at 27.0 GW, or 70.1%, followed by combined cycle gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 6.8 GW, or 17.7% and gas-fired plants with total capacity of 0.2 GW, or 0.6%. As for renewable energy, additional capacity consists of geothermal at 1.9 GW, or 4.9%, hydroelectric at 2.6 GW, or 6.7%, and other plants of 0.05 GW, or 0.1%. The breakdown of power generation development in the Java-Bali system is shown in Table-7
Table-7. Power Generation Development Plan in the Java-Bali System PROJECT
2015
Energy Sales
GWh
Sales Growth
%
Energy Production Load Factor
GWh %
2016
165,350
2017
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 324,352
207,123
222,764
239,471
258,319
278,620
300,755
8,0
7,6
7,6
7,5
7,9
7,9
7,9
7,8
188,005 202,841 218,866
235,619
254,211
276,847
300,172 324,826
350,229
377,367
7,6
178,256 192,454
2018
7,8
79,3
79,4
79,5
79,6
79,7
79,8
79,9
80,0
80,1
80,2
Gross Peak Load
MW
27,061
29,159
31,423
33,786
36,406
39,599
42,881
46,345
49,907
53,707
Nett Peak Load
MW
25,875
27,840
29,993
32,213
34,578
37,103
39,960
43,031
46,376
49,934
Nett Capacity
MW
28,549
28,549
28,549
28,549
28,318
27,393
27,393
27,393
27,393
27,393
Installed Capacity
MW
32,315
32,695
32,695
32,695
32,463
31,538
31,538
31,538
31,538
31,538
PLN
MW
26,655
26,655
26,655
26,655
26,423
25,498
25,498
25,498
25,498
25,498
-
-
-
-
(231)
(800)
-
-
-
-
5,660
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
6,040
CAPACITY
Retired/Mothballed IPP
MW
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
THE JAVA-BALI SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN
11
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 11
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
Table-7. Power Generation Development Plan in the Java-Bali System PROJECT
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(continue)
2022
2023
2024
PLN On Going & Committed Project Tj. Awar-awar
CFPP
Adipala
CFPP
Indramayu #4 (FTP2)
CFPP
Upper Cisokan PS (FTP2)
HEPP
Peaker Pesanggaran
GEPP
Sub Total PLN On Going & Committed
350 660 1,000 1,040 200 860
350
-
-
1,915
-
-
600
-
-
-
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
IPP On Going & Committed Project Celukan Bawang
CFPP
Banten
CFPP
380
Sumsel-8 MT
CFPP
Sumsel-9 MT (PPP)
CFPP
600
Sumsel-10 MT (PPP)
CFPP
600
Cilacap exp
CFPP
Jawa Tengah (PPP)
CFPP
Rajamandala
HEPP
625 1,200
614 1,900 47
Patuha (FTP2)
GeoPP
Kamojang-5 (FTP2)
GeoPP
110
Karaha Bodas (FTP2)
GeoPP
Tangkuban Perahu 1 (FTP2)
GeoPP
Ijen (FTP2)
GeoPP
Iyang Argopuro (FTP2)
GeoPP
Wilis/Ngebel (FTP2)
GeoPP
55
Cibuni (FTP2)
GeoPP
10
Tangkuban Perahu 2 (FTP2)
GeoPP
60
Cisolok - Cisukarame (FTP2)
GeoPP
50
Ungaran (FTP2)
GeoPP
Wayang Windu (FTP2)
GeoPP
Dieng (FTP2)
GeoPP
Tampomas (FTP2)
GeoPP
Baturaden (FTP2)
GeoPP
110
Guci (FTP2)
GeoPP
55
30 30
110 55
55 110 55 110
55 220 55
55 45 110
Rawa Dano (FTP2)
GeoPP
Umbul Telomoyo (FTP2)
GeoPP
55
Gn. Ciremai (FTP2)
GeoPP
110
Gn. Endut (FTP2)
GeoPP
40
Sub Total IPP On Going & Committed
110
1,024
655
47
-
3,320
2,025
1,040
205
110
-
Planned Capacity Addition Jawa-1 (Load Follower)
CCPP
1,600
Jawa-2 (Load Follower)
CCPP
800
Jawa-3 (Load Follower)
CCPP
800
Muara Tawar Add-on Blok 2,3,4
CCPP
Grati Add-on Blok 2
CCPP
650 150
12
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 12
8/27/2015 4:30:28 PM
Table-7. Power Generation Development Plan in the Java-Bali System 2015
Peaker Muara Karang
CCPP
Peaker Grati
CCPP
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GE/CCPP
400
GE/CCPP
500
Peaker Jawa-Bali 3
GE/CCPP
Peaker Jawa-Bali 4
GE/CCPP
150
HEPP
100
Kesamben (Jatim)
HEPP
37
Kalikonto-2 (Jatim)
HEPP
Jatigede (FTP2)
HEPP
Matenggeng PS
HEPP
Indramayu #5
CFPP
Lontar Exp #4
CFPP
Jawa-1 (FTP2)
CFPP
Jawa-3 (FTP2)
CFPP
Jawa-4 (FTP2)
CFPP
2,000
Jawa-5 (FTP2)
CFPP
2,000
Jawa-6 (FTP2)
CFPP
Jawa-7
CFPP
Jawa-8
CFPP
1,000 600
CFPP
Jawa-11
CFPP
Jawa-12
CFPP
Jawa-13
CFPP
Bedugul
GeoPP
2024
500 300
Karangkates #4-5 (Jatim)
CFPP
2023
150
Peaker Jawa-Bali 2
Jawa-9
2022
500 300
Peaker Jawa-Bali 1
Jawa-10
2021
110 450
450 1,000
315 1,000 660
660
2,000 2,000
660 600 1,000
1,000 2,000
10
Total Planned Capacity Addition
MW
-
750
2,850
5,115
7,770
137
1,260
2,120
3,450
3,000
Total Capacity Addition
MW
1,884
1,755
2,897
5,115
13,005
2,162
2,300
2,325
3,560
3,000
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPCITY
MW
35,304
37,439
40,336
45,451
58,224
59,461
61,761
64,086
67,646
70,646
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
32,757
34,738
37,426
42,172
54,024
55,172
57,306
59,463
62,767
65,550
GROSS RESERVE MARGIN
%
30
28
28
35
60
50
44
38
36
32
NETT RESERVE MARGIN
%
27
25
25
31
56
49
43
38
35
31
The development plan for the Java-Bali power system above indicates that the net reserve margin varies between 25-56%, with the lowest reserve margin in 2016 (25%) and 2017 (25%), due to delays some plants such as Sumsel 8 coal-fired power plant (2x600 MW), Central Java coal-fired power plant (2x950 MW), Madura coal-fired power plant (2x200 MW), Java-1 coal-fired power plant (1x1,000 MW), Java-3 coal-fired power plant (2x660 MW) as well as some geothermal power plants amounting to 400 MW. In anticipation of lower reserve margins in 2016 to 2017, some steps have been taken to address the issue. The Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired power plant (450 MW), Grati combined cycle gas-fired power plant (450 MW), Pesanggarangas engine power plant(200 MW) and Java-1 combined cycle gas-fired power plant (800 MW) and coal-fired IPPs such as Celukan Bawang power plant, Banten power plant and Cilacap expansion should be operational over the period 2014-2017, to ensure that the reserve margin is maintained and does not decline.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
PROJECT
(continue)
13
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 13
8/27/2015 4:30:29 PM
Power plants that undergo changes are as follows: (i) Changes in plant type and unit size: Muara Karang open cycle gas-fired power plant (400 MW) to Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired power plant(450 MW) and the Grati open cycle gas-fired power plant (300 MW) to Grati combined cycle gas-fired power plant (450 MW), as combined cycle gas-fired power plants are more efficient and are able to operate on a daily start-stop basis as a peaker plant, (ii) Capacity of Java-1 and Java-2 combined cycle gas-fired power plants to increase from 750 MW to 800 MW, to keep abreast of the latest technology that is more efficient, (iii) Changes in location: Location of Java-6 coal-fired power plant from Bojo Negara to Karawang, (iv) Addition of new planned generating capacity: Java-7 coalfired power plant (2x1000 MW), (v) plants removed from the RUPTL: Semarang open cycle gas-fired power plant (150 MW) as the period of validity of the loan had expired and was not renewed, and Kamojang 6 geothermal plant (60 MW) in view of the results of the study of the PGE reservoir show that it is not possible to develop the Kamojang 6 geothermal power plant, but only to develop the Kamojang 5 geothermal power plant (30 MW). The locations of coal-fired power plants and combined cycle gas-fired power plants are subject to changes in accordance with developments in project preparation, including the availability of gas supply. Keterangan : SRLYA
33 CLGON
2~31
~
Pembangkit
9 MTWAR 4a ~ ~ ~ 6PRIOK BNTEN 5DKSBIMKRNG 7 8 1032 34 IDMYU BKASI KMBNG CBTBR2 12 BRAJA CWANG CBATU11 JAKARTA
TMBUN
GNDUL
XBOGOR
BOGOR
4b ~
CIBNG DEPOK
14
CSKAN PS
~
CBTBR
CRATA ~ SGLNG
15
BANDUNG BDSLN CGRLG
TJATI B
16 ~
13
MDCAN
20CIREBON 21
Rencana GITET 500 kV SUTET 500 kV
35 ~
NGBNG SBBRT
~
18 23RWALO 24 CLCAP IPP 19 ADPLA CILACAP
GRSIK
SEMARANG
PMLNG
17 TASIK
GITET 500 kV
26
22 25 JATENG IPP UNGAR
UJBRG
Rencana Pembangkit
AMPEL
Rencana SUTET 500 kV
27
TANDES SBSLN
28
SURABAYA GRATI
SURAKARTA
PEDAN
KDIRI
29
PITON
BANGIL
MALANG
30 ~
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
NEW ANTOSARI
31
1. Jawa-7 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 2. Jawa-9 CFPP 600 MW (2018) 3. Banten CFPP 625 MW (2016) 4. Jawa-5 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 5. Lontar Exp #4 CFPP 315 MW (2018) 6. Peaker Muara Karang CCPP 500 MW (2017) 7. Jawa-12 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2022/23) 8. Jawa-2 CCPP 800 MW (2018) 9. Muara Tawar Add-on Blok 2,3,4 CCPP 650 MW (2017) 10. Jawa-1 CCPP 2x800 MW (2018) 11. Jawa-6 CCPP 2x1000 MW (2023)
12. Indramayu #4,5 CCPP 2x1000 MW (2019/24) 13. Peaker Jawa-Bali 1 GE/CCPP 400 MW (2017) 14. Upper Cisokan PS 4x260 MW (2019) 15. Rajamandala HEPP 47 MW (2017) 16. Jagede HEPP 2x55 MW (2019) 17. Matenggeng PS 4x225 MW (2022/23) 18. Cilacap CFPP 614 MW (2015) 19. Jawa-8 CFPP 1x1000 MW (2018) 20. Jawa-1 CFPP 1x1.000 MW (2019) 21. Jawa-3 CFPP 2x660 MW (2021/22) 22. Jawa Tengah CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 23. Adipala CFPP 660 MW (2015)
~
24. Jawa-10 CFPP 1x600 MW (2019) 25. Jawa-13 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2024) 26. Jawa-4 CFPP 2x1000 MW (2019) 27. Jawa-3 CCPP 800 MW (2018) 28. Peaker Jawa-Bali 2 GE/CCPP 500 MW (2017) 29. Gra CCPP 450 MW (2016/17) 30. Celukan Bawang CFPP 380 MW (2015) 31. Pesanggaran GEPP 200 MW (2015) 32. Jawa-11 CFPP 1x600 MW (2021) 33. Jawa-Bali 3 GE/CCPP 500 MW (2017) 34. Jawa-Bali 4 GE/CCPP 450 MW (2016/17) 35. Tanjung Awar-Awar CFPP 1x350 MW (2016)
Figure-9. Plans for the Development of the Java-Bali Transmission System
The development of the 500 kV transmission in Java is generally intended to evacuate power from new and expansion power plants, to maintain both the static and dynamic N-1 security criterion, while the development of the 150 kV transmission is intended to maintain the N-1 security criterion and the transmission associated with the new 150 kV substation. The plans for development of the 500 kV transmissions in Java-Bali are shown in Figure-9. Considering the development of EHV transmission lines and HV transmission lines are often delayed due to licensing, ROW and social issues, as well as the urgent need for additional power, there is a need for PLN to take steps to increase transmission capacity soon. The development of EHV transmission line using the new route would take a long time, while the reconductoring of several sections of the 500 kV and 150 kV transmissions would take a shorter time.
14
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 14
8/27/2015 4:30:29 PM
The construction of the 500 kV transmission is intended to evacuate power from large-scale coalfired power plants such as Adipala, Indramayu 4 and 5, Central Java, Java-1, Java-3, Java-4, Java-5, Java-6, Java-7, Java-Bali Crossing to transfer from Paiton to the load center in Bali, pumped storage hydropower Upper Cisokan and Matenggeng, as well as several other new plants. The 500 kV EHV transmission lines that will undergo reconductoring are New Suralaya - BojonegaraBalaraja, Old Suralaya – Balaraja – Gandul, SUTET Mandirancan-Bandung Selatan, SUTET UngaranMandirancan and Ungaran-Pedan. The new 500 kV transmission development plan for EHV transmission lines includes Tanjung Jati B – Pemalang – Indramayu - Cibatu, Balaraja – Kembangan - Durikosambi and Durikosambi – Muara Karang – Muara Tawar that will be forming looping EHV transmission lines in North Jakarta, to strengthen and improve the reliability and flexibility of the system operation in Jakarta. A 500 kV HVDC transmission interconnection between Sumatera - Java will also be built, to distribute power from the mine mouth power plants in South Sumatera to the load centers in Java.
PLTU LONTAR 3 x 315 MW #4 315 MW
TELUK
TNAGA TNAGA II
SPTAN III
SPTAN II PSKMS II
PRIOK
MKRNG
MKRNG III
TGBRU II
PSKMS
GNSRI
SOETA
ANGKE
CKRNG
TGBRU IV
SPINML
BLRJA BNTEN
HVDC
GBLMA
TOMNGII
Old
GRGOL II KBJRK
LIPPO ALMSTRA
LIPPO II BLRJA II LAUTSTEEL MLNIUM CITRA PWRSTEL TGRSA TGRSA III TGRSA II LEGOK LKONG
TOMNG
GRGOL
DRKSB
MAXIM New JTAKE TGRNG KMBNGIII CLDK
KBSRH
NSYAN
AGP
SNYAN
NSYAN II
DNYSA II
DNYSA
PTKNG
BNTRO II
KBSRHIII
CSW III
PDNDH II
BKASI II
PGDNG
BKASI
KESA
SKTNI KSBRU
FAJAR
PNCOL II PDKLP PNCOL
MPANG
DRTGAIII
CBTUBR BKASIUTRA
PGDGSTEEL
TRSNA3 TRSNA2 Old TRSNA
CSW CSW II MRT
HRPDH II
KDSPI PGLNG II GMBRU PKRNG PGLNG III PGLNG PGSAN
TTNGI
KBSRHII
HRPDH
KLPGD
SMBRT AGP II
CIKRNG DRTGA
RGNAN/ DRTGAII
JTWRG
CWANG
BKSPWR
TMBUN II
TMBUN
CWANGBR MNTUR
LKONG II
LKONG
JAWA-1 CCPP 2 X 800 MW
MTWAR
KDSPI II JGC MRNDA
PLPNG
KMYRN II
GPOLA BDKMY DKTAS GBLMA-2 SMBRT II DKTASII PLMAS CIPNG II KARET MGRAI New Old STBDI CIPNG
NSYAN III
KMBNG
MGBSR
KTPNG
RWBUAYA
KMYRN
MGBSR II
DMGOT
PSKMSIII
CKUPA
PLNDOB PLNDOA
ANCOL GNSRI II
TGBRU TGBRU III
CKNDE
JAWA-2 CCPP 1 X 800 MW
MKRNG
KAPUK
TNAGA III
JBEKA TMBUN GDMKR
RJPKSI
CBATU
KMANG
PDNDH
LKONGIII/BSD BNTRO BNTRO IV
SRPNG
BNTRO III
JTNGN
GDRIA
GNDUL
DPBRU
JTNGNII/ CBBUR CBATU
LEGEND : 500 KV S/S EXISTING 500 KV S/S NEW 150 KV S/S EXISTING 150 KV S/S NEW 150 KV S/S NEW HV CUSTOMER 70 KV S/S EXISTING
SWNGAN/ CISEENG
DEPOK III
CLGON
CLGSI II/ JONGGOL
CMGIS II ASPEK
CMGIS
CIBNG
CLGSI
BGORX CIBNG II SNTUL
TSMYA
KDBDK
SCBNG
SGLNG
ITP BGBRU
Figure-10. The Plan for Strengthening 500 kV Transmission in Jakarta
In order to strengthen the system supply in Jakarta, construction has been planned for a EHV transmission line for the Duri Kosambi – Muara Karang – Priok – Muara Tawar section (looping EHV transmission line for north Jakarta route) as shown in Figure-10. The new EHV transmission line will also improve the reliability and flexibility of operation of the power systems in Jakarta and Bekasi.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
SPTAN
JAKARTA
15
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 15
8/27/2015 4:30:29 PM
400,000
350,000
300,000
GWh
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2015
HSD
2016
2017
MFO
2018
LNG
2019
Gas
2020
Coal
2021
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Figure-11. Projected composition of Electricity Production by fuel type in Java-Bali
Figure-11 shows that coal will be the main primary energy used, representing 67.6% of all production in 2024, followed by natural gas (including LNG) 20.9%, geothermal 7.9%, hydro 2.8% and fuel oil in very small proportions (0.8%). The proportion of fuel oil utilized in 2015 was about 3.4% but will decrease to very low levels by 2024. This decrease can be achieved if alternative fuels are available at levels as planned and the most possible efforts are made to reduce electricity production costs. The contribution of natural gas will decline from 21.0% in 2015 to 12.2% in 2024 due to no certain additional gas supply expected to materialize. The contribution of LNG increases from approximately 5% up to 8.7% at 2024. Power plants run with LNG will be operated as peaked power plants and ‘must run’ power plants. The contribution of geothermal energy was only 4.9% in 2015 and will rise to 7.9% by 2024. Table-8 shows the gas supply based on current contracts. The supply of gas for the next 10 years is likely to decline, especially for Priok, Muara Karang, Muara Tawar, Gresik and Grati. Tambak Lorok and Pesanggaran (Bali) have been using fuel oil to-date and they are expected to obtain gas supplies from new sources. Demand for gas for power generation in Java-Bali is shown in Table-9. In the coming years, there will be additional planned gas-fired generating capacities as follows: • Pesanggarangas engine power plant 200 MW (2015), • Grati combined cycle gas-fired peaking plant 450 MW (2015/16), • Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired peaking plant 450 MW (2016), • Java-1 combined cycle gas-fired power plant (in Gresik) 800 MW (2017), which is expected to receive gas supply from the Cepu block; as well as • Java-2 combined cycle gas-fired power plant (in Grati) 800 MW (2018), which has yet to establish its gas supply.
16
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 16
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
Table-8. Gas Supply Situation for the Java-Bali Power Generation Power Plant
1
Muara Karang dan Priok
Gas Supplier PHE ONWJ (GSA)
2015
2016
100
PHE ONWJ (potensi tambahan)
2
Muara Tawar
5
Gresik
2021
2022
2023
2024
100
100
70
70
70
70
25
25
25
25
25
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
PGN - Priok (potensi tambahan)
20
70
70
70
20
20
20
20
20
20
FSRU PT NR
211
134
134
134
225
225
193
193
91
93
Total
361
404
404
304
345
300
268
268
166
168
PGN (GSA)
79
41
41
41
SWAP JOB Jambi Merang
30
30
34
34
34
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
114
96
100
100
59
25
25
25
25
25
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
80
PERTAMINA - P Tengah (GSA)
CNOOC (GSA) PGN (GSA)
Tambak Lorok
2020
30
Total
4
2019
30
Swap Premier (Potensi)
Cilegon
2018
PGN - Priok (GSA-IP)
Tambahan dari PHE (Potensi)
3
2017
5
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
Total
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
PCML
48
116
116
116
116
89
70
70
70
70
SPP (GSA-IP)
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Total
98
166
166
166
166
139
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
Hess (GSA)
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
36
29
19
Kangean Energy Indonesia
80
80
80
70
60
60
50
50
40
30
Media Karya Sentosa
10
10
5
10
Petronas-Bukit Tua (Potensi)
12
43
51
19
9
-
-
-
-
-
Santos Lapongan Peluang
18
SCI (Isar GasEx KEI)
25
20
20
35
Husky Lap MDA-MBH (Potensi*)
-
-
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
Husky Lap MDK (Potensi*)
-
-
-
24
24
24
24
24
-
-
281
289
327
329
164
155
145
145
104
84
PHE WMO eks Kodeco
Total
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
No
17
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 17
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
Table-8. Gas Supply Situation for the Java-Bali Power Generation (continue) No 6
7
Power Plant
Gas Supplier
Grati
2015
2016
2017
2019
Santos Oyong (GSA-IP)
20
Santos Wortel (GSA-IP)
26
13
3
Sampang Mandiri Perkasa (GSAIP)
17
17
17
Pasuruan Migas (GSAIP)
3
3
3
Parnaraya - Husky (GSAIP)
-
-
40
40
Santos Lapangan peluang
25
25
25
-
Total
91
58
88 40
LNG Sengkang (Potensi)
Pesanggaran
2018
Total Total Gas Supply in Jawa-Bali
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
3
40
40
40
40
40
40
43
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
30
-
-
-
-
-
-
40
40
40
30
-
-
-
-
1,056
1,123
1,235
1,092
924
799
708
708
565
547
From Table-9, it can be seen that there could be a shortage of gas supply to some power plants due to the decline in the supply of gas for the next 10 years. In order to prevent this, there must be a follow-up to extend existing gas contracts and to seek new sources of gas.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Table-9. Gas Balance for Power Plants in Java-Bali Power Plant 1
2
Muara Karang
Role
MW
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
1)
CCPP Block 1
Medium
507
70
50
49
47
47
47
47
46
47
47
CCPP Block 2 (Rep)
Medium
720
84
68
65
54
55
54
56
55
55
55
CFPP
Base
400
CCPP Baru
Peak
450
9
19
21
21
21
21
21
21
CCPP Block 1
Medium
590
61
58
56
47
47
47
58
56
56
56
CCPP Block 2
Medium
590
61
58
56
47
47
47
58
56
56
56
CCPP Block 3 (Ext)
Medium
743
85
72
68
66
63
62
65
66
65
66
CCPP Jawa-2
Medium
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
361
304
304
354
354
353
380
375
374
374
Tanjung Priok
2)
Subtotal
800 4,000
Gas Supply
150
170
170
170
120
75
75
75
75
75
LNG Supply
211
134
134
134
225
225
193
193
91
93
0
0
0
-51
-9
-53
-112
-106
-208
-207
Surplus-Deficit
18
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 18
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
Table-9. Gas Balance for Power Plants in Java-Bali Power Plant 3
Role
MW
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(continue)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Muara Tawar CCPP Block 1
Medium
640
GTPP Block 2
Peak
GTPP Block 3
Peak
GTPP Block 4
Peak
679
CCPP Block 5
Medium
234
28
2,662
Subtotal
61
63
65
430
52
50
48
47
47
47
47
47
47
679
28
28
28
26
26
26
25
29
29
28
28
28
26
26
26
25
29
29
17
21
21
21
21
21
20
28
28
76
186
189
190
145
146
147
144
157
158
76
96
100
100
59
25
25
25
25
25
0
-90
-89
-90
-86
-121
-122
-119
-132
-133
Gas Supply
48
27
27
28
26
25
25
LNG Supply Surplus-Deficit Gresik 4) CCPP Block 1
Medium
526
67
61
73
64
54
54
54
54
54
54
CCPP Block 2
Medium
526
67
61
73
64
54
54
54
54
54
54
CCPP Block 3
Medium
526
67
61
73
64
54
54
54
54
54
54
CFPP
Base
400
82
108
108
63
CCPP Jawa-3
Medium
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
282
290
327
329
236
236
237
236
236
236
281
289
327
329
164
155
145
145
104
84
0
0
0
0
-72
-81
-92
-91
-132
-152
98
166
166
166
166
139
120
120
120
120
98
166
166
166
166
139
120
120
120
120
98
166
166
166
166
139
120
120
120
120
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Subtotal
800 2,779
Supply Surplus-Deficit 5
Tambak Lorok CCPP Block 1-2
Medium
CFPP
1,034 200
Subtotal
1,234
Supply Surplus-Deficit 6
Grati 4) CCPP Block 1
Medium
462
69
53
50
48
48
48
49
51
55
48
GTPP Block 2
Peak
302
22
24
31
28
29
28
29
31
29
30
CCPP Baru
Peak
450
5
16
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Subtotal
1,214
Supply Surplus-Deficit 7
CCPP Cilegon
Medium
740
Supply
91
83
97
95
96
95
96
100
103
97
91
58
88
43
40
40
40
40
40
40
0
-25
-9
-52
-56
-55
-56
-60
-63
-57
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
110
30
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
30
30
30
30
-30
0
10
10
10
-20
-20
-20
-20 1,339
Surplus-Deficit 8
GE Pesanggaran
250
Supply Surplus-Deficit 9
Total Java-Bali Demand
1,017
1,174
1,267
1,487
1,350
1,323
1,334
1,328
1,344
Supply
1,018
1,023
1,125
1,082
914
799
708
708
565
547
0
-151
-142
-406
-437
-525
-626
-620
-779
-792
Surplus/Deficit Note: 1) Includes 2) Includes 3) Includes 4) Includes
Muara Karang combined cycle gas-fired power plant 450 MW Muara Tawar Add-on Blocks 2,3,4 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 650 MW Java-1 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 800 MW Java-2 combined cycle gas-fired power plant 800 MW
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
4
19
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 19
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
THE SUMATERA SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN Table-10 shows the power supply and demand balance of the Sumatera power system. The power system in Sumatera is planned to achieve a reserve margin of 61% by 2024. Potential load in Sumatera could be higher than it is planned. However, given high reserve margin in upcoming years, it is possible to accommodate such potential high loads. If the reserve margin is lower than 40%, it would be necessary to control the load. The new power plant development plan on Sumatera system can be seen in Table-10.
Table-10. Power Generation Development Plan in Sumatera No. 1
Supply and Demand
3
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Demand Energy Production
2
Unit GWh
Load Factor
%
Peak Load
MW
33,666 37,407 41,427 46,008 51,154 56,889 63,467 70,993 79,512 69
69
71
71
72
73
5,590
6,144
6,687
7,352
8,083
8,873
75
77
89,214
77
77
9,687 10,579 11,807
13,141
Supply Installed Capacity
MW
7,705
7,670
7,544
7,381
7,381
7,381
7,381
7,381
7,381
7,381
Nett Capacity
MW
5,530
5,154
4,838
4,480
4,450
4,450
4,450
4,450
4,450
4,450
PLN
MW
3,701
3,666
3,540
3,377
3,377
3,377
3,377
3,377
3,377
3,377
Rent
MW
943
602
412
217
187
187
187
187
187
187
IPP
MW
886
886
886
886
886
886
886
886
886
886
Retired & Mothballed (PLN)
MW
0
35
126
163
0
0
0
0
0
0
200
200
Capacity Addition
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
PLN ON-GOING & COMMITTED Pangkalan Susu #1,2 (FTP1)
CFPP
440
Riau (Amandemen FTP1)
CFPP
220
Pangkalan Susu #3,4 (FTP2)
CFPP
Arun (Peaker)
GE/GTPP
Batanghari
CCPP
Keramasan
CCPP
Hululais (FTP2)
GeoPP
Sungai Penuh (FTP2)
GeoPP
Peusangan 1-2
HEPP
Asahan III (FTP2)
HEPP
Masang-2 (FTP2)
HEPP
200 30 55
55 110
88 174 55
RENT Aceh
GTPP
25
-25
Lampung Sribawono
GE/GTPP
100
-100
Payo Selincah
GE/GTPP
20
-20
DieselPP
180
RENT ADDITION (Die/GT/GEPP) Sumbagut Sumbagselteng
-180
MW
IPP ON-GOING & COMMITTED Keban Agung
CFPP
225
Sumsel - 5
CFPP
150
Sumsel - 7
CFPP
150 300
20
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 20
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
Table-10. Power Generation Development Plan in Sumatera (continue) No.
Supply and Demand Riau Kemitraan (PLN-TNBPTBA) Jambi
Unit
2015
2016
2017
2018
CFPP
Lumut Balai (FTP2) Ulubelu #3,4 (FTP2)
GeoPP
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
1200
CFPP GeoPP
2019
1200 55 55
55
110
55
Sarulla I (FTP2)
GeoPP
Muara Laboh (FTP2)
GeoPP
Rantau Dadap (FTP2)
GeoPP
Sorik Marapi (FTP2)
GeoPP
Seulawah Agam (FTP2)
GeoPP
Rajabasa (FTP2)
GeoPP
Suoh Sekincau (FTP2)
GeoPP
Sipoholon Ria-Ria (FTP2)
GeoPP
20
Wai Ratai (FTP2)
GeoPP
55
Sarulla II (FTP2)
GeoPP
Simbolon Samosir (FTP2)
GeoPP
Danau Ranau (FTP2)
GeoPP
Bonjol (FTP2)
GeoPP
Wampu (FTP2)
HEPP
110
220 70
150 110
110 80
160 110 110
62
110 158
110 110 110 60 45
Semangka (FTP2)
HEPP
Hasang (FTP2)
HEPP
Merangin-2
HEPP
Peusangan-4 (FTP2)
HEPP
83
Batang Toru (Tapsel)
HEPP
500
56 40 175
175
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION Riau
CCPP
Meulaboh (Nagan Raya) #3,4
CFPP
Sumut-1
CFPP
Sumut-2
CFPP
Sumsel-1
CFPP
Sumsel-6
CFPP
Sumbagsel-1
CFPP
Bengkulu
CFPP
Banyuasin
CFPP
Lampung Peaker
CCPP/ MG
200
Jambi Peaker
CCPP/ MG
100
Riau Peaker
CCPP/ MG
200
Sumbagut-1 Peaker
CCPP/ MGU
Sumbagut-2 Peaker (Arun)
CCPP/ MGU
Sumbagut-3 Peaker (Medan)
CCPP/ MGU
250
Sumbagut-4 Peaker (Medan)
CCPP/ MGU
250
160 200
200
300 300 300 300 150
300
300
300
150 200 230
250 250
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
90
21
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 21
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
Table-10. Power Generation Development Plan in Sumatera (continue)
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
No.
Supply and Demand
Unit
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Sidikalang-1
HEPP
15
Redelong
HEPP
18
Air Putih
HEPP
Simonggo-2
HEPP
Meureubo-2
HEPP
Ketahun-1
HEPP
84
Kumbih-3
HEPP
48
Masang-3
HEPP
89 120
2023
2024
21 90 59
Sibundong-4
HEPP
Tampur-1
HEPP
Lawe Alas
HEPP
151
Jambu Aye
HEPP
160
Sumatera Pump Storage-1
HEPP
Sumatera Pump Storage-2
HEPP
428
500 500
Truck Mounted T. Jabung Timur
GE/GTPP
Truck Mounted Lampung
GE/GTPP
Truck Mounted Sumut
GE/GTPP
100
Barge Mounted Sumut
GE/GTPP
250
100 100
4
Total Capacity Addition
MW
1,535
5
Total System Capacity
MW
9,692 10,482 11,446 12,918 17,215 18,381 19,136 20,370 21,500 24,127
6
Total Nett Capacity
MW
7,517
825 7,966
1,090
1,635
4,297
1,166
755
1,234
1,130
2,627
8,740 10,017 14,284 15,450 16,205 17,449 18,579 21,206
The development of transmission lines in Sumatera will form the transmission backbone 500 kV interconnection system that unites the corridors of Sumatera in the east. The centers of large-scale generation and load centers in Sumatera will be connected to this 500 kV transmission system. This transmission also will transfer electricity from power plants in the areas with adequate cheap primary energy source (Sumbagsel and Riau) to areas which lack a primary energy source (Sumbagut). The addition of 500 kV transmission is also developed in South Sumatera as a feeder supplier of electricity from the mine mouth coal fired power plant to the HVDC transmission converter station which will connect the islands of Sumatera and Java. Besides interconnection between Sumatera and Java-Bali Systems, it is also planned to interconnect Sumatera system with Peninsular System (Malaysia) through HVDC transmission converter station in Riau. The development plan in RUPTL 2015-2024 for the transmission system will make significant change to the network topology with the establishment of the 275 kV and 500 kV interconnection systems in Sumatera. The development is also done to meet the growing demand in the form of additional transformer capacity. The development intents to improve the reliability and debottlenecking which is also planned in some systems, such as the plan to build a second circuit and reconductoring several sections in the Sumbagsel and Sumbagut transmission systems.
22
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 22
8/27/2015 4:30:30 PM
The plan for a 275 kV interconnection in Sumatera is programmed to begin in 2015 and be implemented entirely in 2017. In addition, some substations and 150 kV transmissions are being constructed to take over the load of diesel generators to interconnected systems. By fully operating the entire EHV Backbones 275 kV Sumatera in 2017, the Sumbagut and Sumbagselteng will be fully interconnected. Hence, the fuel consumption in Sumbagut system will be significantly lower. The development plan of the power system in Sumatera is shown in Figure-12. Ulee Kareeng
38. Bangka Peaker GEPP 100 MW - 2018/19 39. Air Anyir (FTP1) CFPP 2x15 MW – 2015 40. Sewa CFPP 2x30 MW – 2019/20 41. Belitung Baru (FTP1) CFPP – 2014/15 41. Belitung Peaker (FTP1) GEPP 20 MW – 2017/18 42. Belitung-4 CFPP 2x15 MW – 2015/16
Sigli 1
Arun 4
5
3
Aceh 1 7 6
1. Seulawah Agam (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW - 2024 2. Nagan Raya (FTP1) CFPP 2x110 MW - 2014 2. Meulaboh (Nagan Raya) #3,4 CFPP 200 MW - 2019/20 3. Peusangan 88 MW HEPP – 2018 4. Peusangan-4 (FTP2) HEPP 83 MW - 2022 5. Arun (Peaker) GEPP 200 MW – 2015 5. Sumbagut-2 Peaker CCPP/GEPP 250 MW – 2017 6. Lawe Alas HEPP 151 MW - 2024 7. Sumbagut-4 Peaker CCPP/GEPP 250 MW – 2019 7. Tampur-1 HEPP 428 MW – 2024 8. Meurebo-2 HEPP 59 MW - 2020 9. Pangkalan Susu (FTP1) CFPP 2x220 MW – 2015 9. Pangkalan Susu (FTP2) CFPP 2x200 MW – 2018/19 10. Barge Mounted PP Sumut 250 MW – 2016 10. Truck Mounted PP Sumut 100 MW - 2016 10. Sumut-1 CFPP 2x150 MW 2018 10. Sumbagut-1 Peaker CCPP/GEPP 250 MW – 2018 10. Sumbagut-4 Peaker CCPP/GEPP 250 MW – 2019 11. Sumatera Pump Storage-1 HEPP 500 MW – 2023 12. Simbolon Samosir (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW - 2023 13. Sipoholon Ria-Ria (FTP2) GeoPP 20 MW - 2022 14. Hasang (FTP2) HEPP 40 MW – 2018 15. Asahan III (FTP2) HEPP 174 MW - 2019 16. Sarulla I (FTP2) GeoPP 3x110 MW - 2017/18 16. Sarulla II (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW - 2024 17. Batang Toru HEPP 510 MW – 2022 18. Wampu (FTP2) HEPP 2x15 MW – 2016 19. Sorik Marapi (FTP2) GeoPP 240 MW – 2020/21 20. Sumut-2 CFPP 2x300 MW 2023-2024 21. Kumbih-3 HEPP 48 MW - 2022 21. Sidikalang-1 HEPP 15 MW - 2019 22. Simonggo-2 HEPP 90 MW – 2021 23. Sibundong-4 HEPP 120 MW - 2022
44. Hululais (FTP2) GeoPP 2x55 MW - 2019/20 45. Bengkulu CFPP 2x100 MW – 2019 46. Air Putih HEPP 21 MW – 2018 47. Ketahun-1 HEPP 84 MW - 2022
Sumut 4 9 Pangkalan Susu 10
18 Binjai 11 Pump SUMUT 3 storage-1 21
48. Sumsel-5 CFPP 2x150 MW - 2015/16 48. Sumsel-7 CFPP 2x150 MW – 2018 49. Sumsel-1 CFPP 2x300 MW - 2020/21 50. Banjarsari CFPP 2x115 MW – 2014 51. Keramasan CCPP 80 MW – 2014 52. Sumbagsel-1 CFPP 2x150 MW – 2018/2019 53. Keban Agung CFPP 2x112.5 MW – 2015 54. Lumut Balai (FTP2) GeoPP 4x55 MW - 2017/19/24 55. Rantau Dadap (FTP2) GeoPP 2x110 MW - 2019/20 56. Danau Ranau (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW – 2024 57. Suoh Sekincau (FTP2) GeoPP 220 MW - 2020/2024
20
SUMUT 2 14
12 Simangkok 22 13 23 16 17 New Padang Sidempuan
15
SUMUT 1 Rantau Prapat
Sarulla Batang Toru
29 Riau 2
58. Ulubelu 3&4 (FTP2) GeoPP 2x55 MW - 2016/17 59. Semangka (FTP2) HEPP 56 MW - 2019 60. Lampung Peaker CCPP/GEPP 200 MW – 2017 61. Lampung MPP 100 MW - 2016 61. Sribawono GEPP 100 MW – 2015 63. Wai Ratai (FTP2) GeoPP 55 MW – 2022 64. Sebalang (FTP1) CFPP 2x110 MW -2014 65. Rajabasa (FTP2) GeoPP 2x110 MW - 2023/24 66. Sumsel-6 CFPP 2x300 MW – 2019/2020
30 24
19
Payakumbuh 25 Riau 1 31 Kiliranjao
26 Pump storage-2 27
32 Sungai Rumbai
33
Muaro Bungo
28
34 Jambi 2
35
Sungai Lilin Sumsel-1 49
36
44 47
46
24. Bonjol (FTP2) GeoPP 60 MW - 2022 25. Masang-2 (FTP2) HEPP 55 MW – 2021 25. Masang-3 HEPP 89 MW - 2022 26. Sumatera Pump Storage-2 HEPP 500 MW - 2023 27. Teluk Sirih (FTP1) CFPP 2x112 MW – 2014 28. Muara Laboh (FTP2) GeoPP 220 MW – 2018/24 29. Duri GEPP 100 MW – 2014 29. Riau Peaker CCPP/GEPP 200 MW – 2017 30. Riau CCPP 250 MW – 2017 30. Riau/Tenayan CFPP 2x110 MW – 2015 31. Riau Kemitraan CFPP 2x600 MW – 2019
Lahat Lumut Balai Rantau Dedap
32. Jambi (Tj.Jabung) MPP 100 MW - 2016 33. Batang Hari ST Unit 30 MW - 2017 33. Payo Selincah (Rent) GEPP 20 MW – 2015 34. Sei Gelam (CNG) GEPP 100 MW – 2014 34. Jambi Peaker CCPP/GEPP – 2017 35. Sungai Penuh (FTP2) GeoPP 110 MW – 2024 36. Merangin-2 HEPP 2x175 MW - 2021/22
40 Ke GI 150 kV Tanjung Api-Api
Palembang
2
Kenten
G Borang
ACSR1x120 mm2 10 kmr 2013 Uprate to 2 ACCC 1x160 mm
G CU 1000 mm2 10 kmr-COD 2014
G GU
Gandus Talang Ratu
Seduduk Putih
GU
Mariana D
Boom Baru Bukit Siguntang
Sungai Juaro
Bungaran Sungai Kedukan Jakabaring G
45
38
ACSR 2x330 mm 20 kmr-COD 2013
2
ACSR 2x330 mm 1 kmr-COD 2014
Talang Kelapa Ke GI 150 kV Betung
U
Lubuk Linggau
39
Sumsel-5 48 Sumsel-7
37 Bangko Jambi 1
Keramasan Ke GI 150 kV Simpang Tiga
G PLTG Jakabaring CNG
2
ACSR 2x330 mm 1 kmr-COD 2017
Ke GI 150 kV Kayu Agung
51
Sumsel-6 66
50 Sumsel 1 53 52Muara 54 Enim
Gumawang
Dukong
55
Manggar U
U G
41
56 57 59
58
Lampung
U
61
42
62 63
6460 65
37. CFPP Jambi 2x600 MW - 2019
Figure-12. The Development Plan of Transmission System in Sumatera
The projected fuel mix for electricity production in Sumatera in 2024 would be 54.6% coal, 13.6% natural gas, 14.4% hydro, 1.2% fuel oil and 15.9% geothermal as shown in Figure-13. The dominance of coal fuel used in Sumatera Subsystem will be clearly seen particularly after 2019, or after the coal steam power plant Riau Kemitraan (2x600 MW), and coal steam power plant Jambi (2x600 MW) come into operation. In certain condition, coal steam power plant Sumsel 8, 9, dan 10 (3.000 MW) which are allocated to transfer power to the Java-Bali system can be used to supply Sumatera system. With the dominance of coal power plants in Sumatera system, the production cost of the system will be more economic. From Figure-13, it can be seen that there is a reduction in gas consumption, particularly in 2018 to 2020. This condition occurs by the termination of gas power plants in Sumatera and the plan to not extending the contracts.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
2
Nagan Raya
ACSR 2x430 mm 2 60 kmr-COD 2014
8
23
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 23
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
120,000
100,000
GWh
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2015
2016
Impor
2017
Biomass
2018
HSD
2019
MFO
2020
LNG
2021
Gas
Coal
2022
2023
Geothermal
2024
Hydro
Figure-13. The Projected Composition of Electricity Production by Fuel Type in Sumatera
Plans for the supply to gas plant in Sumatera are presented in Table-11.
Table-11. Gas Supply for Power Plants in Sumatera No
Power Plant
Gas Supplier
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
SUMATERA 1
Aceh Timur
Medco Blok A
0
0
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
Arun, PLTG/MG Sumbagut 2 (Arun)
FSRU LNG Tangguh
5
10
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
3
PLTG/MG Sumbagut 1
FSRU LNG Tangguh
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
4
PLTG/MG Sumbagut 3, dan 4
FSRU LNG Tangguh
20
20
20
20
20
20
5
PLTGU Belawan
FSRU LNG Tangguh
6
PLTG/MG Barge Mounted
FSRU LNG Tangguh
7
PLTG/MG Truck Mounted
FSRU LNG Tangguh
8
PLTG Sewa Navigat,PLTG Belawan (TTF), PLTG Paya Pasir (TTF)
Kambuna
9
Belawan (TTF), PEP Benggala PLTG Paya Pasir (TTF) (Potential)
10
Teluk Lembu
Kalila Bentu
11
Balai Pungut
JOB - Pertamina Talisman Jambi Merang (Duri) JOB - Pertamina Talisman Jambi Merang (Rengat) JOB - Pertamina Talisman Jambi Merang (Potential)
78
78
78
78
78
78
78
78
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
13
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
24
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 24
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
Table-11. Gas Supply for Power Plants in Sumatera (continue) Power Plant
12
PLTGU Riau (IPP)
PGN-Kontrak BUMD
Gas Supplier
2015
13
PLTG/MG Riau Peaker
JOB - Pertamina Talisman Jambi Merang (Potential)
14
PLTMG Rawa Minyak Bengkalis
Petroselat Rawa Minyak (Potential)*
0
15
PLTG Tanjung Jabung TM
Petro China (Potential)
0
16
PLTG/MG Jambi Peaker (Sei Gelam)
JOB - Pertamina Talisman Jambi Merang (Potential)
17
Sungai Gelam
25
2016 25
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
2
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
PEP - TAC (Own Operation)
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
PEP - TAC Sungai Gelam
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
0 0
18
Simpang Tuan
Perusda Jambi
19
Payo Selincah,
Energasindo
14
14
14
14
14
14
0
0
0
Batanghari
Jambi Merang
20
20
18
16
14
14
14
0
0
0
20
Jakabaring (CNG)
PDPDE Sumsel
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
21
Indralaya
Medco E&P Indonesia
21
10
17
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
Talang Duku
PGN
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
0
0
0
23
Borang
Medco E&P Indonesia
18
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
Keramasan
Medco E&P Indonesia
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pertamina EP
15
15
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
15
15
15
15
15
0
0
0
0
31
31
31
31
31
0
0
0
0
0
25
26
30
30
30
27
27
0
0
0
25
Gunung Megang
Medco E & P Indonesia
26
Borang
Pertamina EP (Asri Gita)
27
PLTMG Duri, Duri Jambi Merang Relokasi, Riau Peaker
28
PLTGU Duri
Jambi Merang
0
0
16
16
16
16
16
0
0
0
29
Rengat
Jambi Merang
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
0
0
0
30
Lampung Peaker
FSRU Lampung (Potential)
0
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
31
Lampung Sewa
PGN (Potential)
17
17
17
17
17
0
0
0
0
PLTG/MG Truck Mounted Lampung
PGN (Potential)/ FSRU Lampung (Potential)
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
Gasifikasi PLTD
PGN (Potential)
390
312
309
309
32 33
TOTAL
0
13
13
13
13
13
13
305
360
497
474
490
449
THE WEST KALIMANTAN POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN The current installed capacity in West Kalimantan is 296 MW (including rental capacity) whereby all plants are using fuel oil, so the operating cost is very high. Additional generation capacities in West Kalimantan are still in the planning stage, with the exception of Fast Track Phase 1 – Parit Baru (2x50 MW) and Kura-kura (2x25 MW) coal-fired power plants are under construction and expected to be operational by 2016. PLN and Sarawak Electricity Company (SESCO) have signed a Power Exchange agreement (PEA) which sets out plans for PLN to purchase electricity to supply West Kalimantan from Sarawak for 50
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
No
25
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 25
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
MW flat (as base load) and at peak load PLN can purchase up to 230 MW, starting from early 2015 until 2019. In the long term it is possible that such purchase of electricity from Sarawak will only be during peak loads. This will enable PLN to defer the need for peaking plants which run on expensive fuel. However, to avoid excessive dependence on electricity supply from Sarawak, the construction of a gas turbine/engine power plant of 100 MW in 2019 has been planned. The power supply and demand balance of the West Kalimantan system (Table-12) indicates that the reserve margin will reach approximately 40% by 2024. This situation is still acceptable considering that coal-fired power plant projects in West Kalimantan are at a risk of delays for various reasons and there is no take-or-pay clause at peak periods in the Sarawak interconnection.
Table-12. Power Generation Development Plan in West Kalimantan Supply and Demand
Unit
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
GWh
6,659
Demand Energy Production
1,939
2,195
2,814
3,451
3,846
4,349
4,842
5,371
5,983
%
66
68
66
67
67
66
66
66
66
66
Gross Peak Load
MW
334
371
485
592
658
754
839
929
1,033
1,148
Supply
MW
486
222
217
119
125
131
131
131
131
131
MW
0
Load Factor
Installed Capacity PLN
204
104
89
0
0
0
0
0
0
GTPP
30
30
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DIESEL PP
74
74
59
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interconnection to the subsystem
13
13
58
119
125
131
131
131
131
131
169
105
70
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rental PP
MW
MOBILE POWER PLANT Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Retired & Mothballed (PLN)
100 MW
119
CAPACITY ADDITION PLN ON GOING & COMMITTED Power Purchase from SESCo (Peaking)
275 KV
Power Purchase from SESCo (Baseload)
275 KV
130 50
50
Pantai Kura-Kura (FTP1)
CFPP
55
Parit Baru (FTP1)
CFPP
100
Parit Baru - Loan China (FTP2)
CFPP
-50
55
55
IPP ON GOING & COMMITTED PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION Nanga Pinoh
HEPP
Kalbar - 1
CFPP
98 200
26
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 26
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
Table-12. Power Generation Development Plan in West Kalimantan Supply and Demand
Unit
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Kalbar Peaker
GE/ CCPP
Kalbar - 2
CFPP
Kalbar - 3
CFPP
TOTAL CAPACITY ADDITION
MW
50
335
55
255
100
150
200
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY
MW
536
607
657
814
920
1,076
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
482
546
591
732
828
969
(continue) 2022
2023
2024
100 200
200 200
200
98
200
200
1,276
1,374
1,574
1,774
1,149
1,237
1,417
1,597
The development plan for the transmission network in West Kalimantan up to the year 2024 amount to 2,812 km, which include: construction of a new 150 kV transmission line associated with the Fast Track coal-fired plants, coal-fired IPP and hydro projects. Development of the existing 150 kV transmission line to scattered locations in West Kalimantan systems is also planned in order to meet the reliability criteria (N-1) and to overcome bottlenecks in delivery, improve voltage and operational flexibility. Construction of 275 kV West Kalimantan - Sarawak transmission interconnection will reap economic benefits of the energy exchange when there is a marginal cost difference between the two systems. The development of the interconnection is also useful as a contingency in the event that the construction of new plants is delayed.
7,000
6,000
GWh
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2015
Import
2016
HSD
2017
MFO
2018
LNG
2019
Gas
2020
Coal
2021
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Figure-14. The Projected Composition of Electricity Produced by Type of Fuel in West Kalimantan System
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The projected energy mix in West Kalimantan system is shown in Figure-14. The role of each primary energy can be explained as follows: in 2015, due to the lack of new power generation capacity besides fuel oil, electricity production using fuel oil reached 1,586 GWh. In line with the operation of coal-fired power plant and imports of electricity from Sarawak, the use of fuel oil as the primary fuel in the West Kalimantan power system can be further reduced; Hydro power resources are found in the Nanga Pinoh area, so a 98 MW Nanga Pinoh hydro power plant has been planned, to be operational by 2022.
27
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 27
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
THE SOUTH, CENTRAL, EAST AND NORTH KALIMANTAN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN Up to the third quarter of 2014, the power generation capacity of PLN and IPP power plants, including rental diesel engine units and excess power, in the South, Central, North and East regions of Kalimantan (Kalseltengtimra) is 1,131 MW, with peak load at 917 MW, excluding the Teluk Balikpapan coal fired power plant and Pulang Pisau coal fired power plant which is projected to operate in 2015. In addition, the portion of power generation plants operating on oil fuel in Kalseltengtimra is still high, hence the power production cost remains high. A large number of additional power plants have been planned in Kalseltengtimra system as it is reflected in the power balance, where the annual reserve margin range between 39% up to 57% toward net available generation capacity. It is considered that the generation expansion planning with relatively high reserve margin (up to 57%) is intended to provide greater certainty to the people of South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan that the electricity supply in these regions will be adequate, or even exceed their need. During the period 2015-2024, an additional of 3,409 MW of new generation capacity from both PLN and IPP has been planned, including those already in the procurement process and under construction. The additional new generation capacity comprises of coal fired power plants (2,459 MW), gas turbine/engine peaking plants (830 MW) and hydroelectric plants (120 MW). The power generation development plan in Kalseltengtimra is shown in Table-13.
Table-13. Power Generation Development Plan in Kalseltengtimra Projects
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
15,630
16,946
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Kalselteng - Kaltim Interconnection (2016) Kalselteng-Kaltim-Kaltara Interconnection (2018) Demand Energy Production Load Factor Gross Peak Load
GWh %
6,591
7,730
8,737
10,188
11,109
12,181
13,316
14,425
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
68
68
68
MW
1,127
1,322
1,494
1,736
1,887
2,062
2,246
2,429
2,628
2,845
MW
1,264
1,206
763
580
580
580
580
580
540
540
1,023
952
638
537
537
537
537
537
497
497
637
661
445
415
415
415
415
415
415
415
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
40
40
40
40
CAPACITY Installed Capacity Nett Capacity PLN IPP
MW
50
61
61
EXCESS POWER
MW
122
122
93
RENTAL
MW
214
109
40
40
MOBILE POWER PLANT
MW
200
230 129
151
Retired & Mothballed
CAPACITY ADDITION PLN ON GOING & COMMITTED Pulang Pisau (FTP1) Bangkanai (FTP2) Sampit
CFPP GE/CCPP CFPP
120 155
140 50
28
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 28
8/27/2015 4:30:31 PM
Table-13. Power Generation Development Plan in Kalseltengtimra Projects Teluk Balikpapan (FTP1)
2015 CFPP
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(continue)
2022
2023
2024
220
IPP ON GOING & COMMITTED Kaltim (MT)
CFPP
Kalsel (FTP2)
CFPP
55 100
100
Kaltim (FTP2)
CFPP
100
100
Tanah Grogot
CFPP
14
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION GT/GE/ CCPP
Kalsel Peaker 2
GT/GE/ CCPP
Kaltim Peaker 2
GT/GE/ CCPP
Kaltim Peaker 3
GT/GE/ CCPP
200 100 100 100
Senipah (ST)
CCPP
Kelai
HEPP
35 55
Kusan
HEPP
65
Kalselteng 1
CFPP
100
100
Kalselteng 2
CFPP
100
100
Kalselteng 3
CFPP
Kaltim 3
CFPP
Kaltim 4
CFPP
100
100 200
100
Kaltim 5
CFPP
TOTAL CAPACITY ADDITION
MW
340
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY
MW
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
500
200
100
400
200
300
200
200
400
320
169
530
250
1,824
1,935
2,022
2,089
2,589
2,989
3,189
3,489
3,849
4,169
1,583
1,681
1,897
2,046
2,546
2,946
3,146
3,446
3,806
4,126
The development plan of the Kalseltengtimra 150 kV and 70kV transmission system is intended to satisfy electricity demand growth and to connect isolated systems which are up to now are still supplied by fuel oil power plants, to the grid. The transmission system is also intended to support regional development to ensure availability of power supply, given the establishment of the North Kalimantan province as well as new regencies, which will result in increasing electricity demand. Additionally, the development of 150 kV transmission line also has a purpose to create interconnection between systems in order to obtain reliability, efficiency and flexibility when it is operated. The interconnection between the systems involve South and Central Kalimantan – East Kalimantan interconnection system with East Kalimantan – North Kalimantan interconnection system to form a complete Kalseltengtimra Interconnection system. The transmission development plan in Kalimantan is shown in Figure-15. The projection of energy production for Kaseltengtimra system from year 2015 to 2024 is given by Figure-16. The role of diesel fuel oil in 2015 is still high, which is 1,696 (26%). Starting from 2018, the utilisation of fuel oil will be decreased by the substitution of natural gas and coal. It is planned that Gas Fired/Gas Engine/Steam Gas peaker power plants using LNG and coal fired power plants will be developed. The role of coal fired power plant will be 4,158 GWh (63%) in 2015 and will reach the number of 13,322 GWh (79%) in 2024. Energy production from hydro will also increase from 106 GWh in 2015 to 470 GWh in 2024.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Kalsel Peaker 1
29
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 29
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35.
Ketapang CFPP (FTP2) 20 MW-2016 Ketapang CFPP IPP 12 MW-2015 Nanga Pinoh HEPP 98 MW-2022 Kalbar-3 CFPP 400 MW – 2023/24 Kalbar-1 CFPP 200 MW-2018 Kalbar-2 CFPP 400 MW 2020/21 Pantai Kura-Kura CFPP 55 MW-2016 Parit Baru CFPP (FTP1) 100 MW-2016 Parit Baru CFPP (FTP2) 110 MW-2017/18 Kalbar Peaker 100 MW- 2019
36. 37. 38. 39.
SABAH ( MALAYSIA )
Kalselteng MPP 100 MW - 2016 Kalselteng MPP 100 MW - 2016 Kaltim MPP 100 MW - 2016 Kalbar MPP 100 MW – 2016
12
1. Malinau GEPP (6 MW) – 2017 2. Malinau CFPP 6 MW- 2016 3. Tj. Selor CFPP 14 MW-2015 4. Tj. Selor GEPP 15 MW- 2017 5. Tj. Redep CFPP 14 MW-2015 6. Kelai HEPP 55 MW-2024 7. Kaltim CFPP FTP2 200 MW-2018/19 8. Kaltim CFPP (MM) 55 MW-2017 9. Kaltim Peaker-2 100 MW-2017 10. Kaltim Peaker-3 100 MW-2022 11. Kaltim-4 CFPP 200 MW-2019/20 12. Kaltim-3 CFPP 400 MW-2022/23 13. Senipah (ST) 35 MW-2017 14. Teluk BPN CFPP 220 MW-2015 15. Kaltim-5 CFPP 400 MW-2023/24
Tidang Pale
Malinau
3 4
. Tj Selor ( SERAWAK ) MALAYSIA
Tj Redep .
5
6 Sambas
Talisayan
Interkoneksi ke Serawak
Muara Wahau
34 Singkawang 30
Putussibau
Ngabang Sanggau
Mempawah Parit Baru 33 35 39 Kota Baru
Siantan 29 Tayan Sei Raya
Bontang Kuala
Sekadau
Kota Bangun
28
16
Puruk Cahu
Nanga Pinoh Kota Baru
Bontang 11 New SMD 710 Sambera Embalut 38
Bukit biru Tengkawang Haru Samboja
Melak Kuala Kurun
Sandai
Muara Teweh
Karjo Sepaku Kariangau
14 Petung 15
25
Rantaupulut
26 27
Ketapang
Sepaso
Sangatta
Sintang
31 Sukadana
Maloi
Long Bagun
Bengkayang
32
Buntok
Nangabulik
Pangkalan Banteng
Parenggean
Sukamara
24 Pangkalan Bun
Tanjung Paringin Amuntai Barikin Selat Kandangan Marabahan Rantau
19
Kayutangi
Seberang Barito21 22 36Trisakti 37 Mantuil
Kuala Pambuang
17
New Industri Manggarsari New Balikpapan
Ulin Sei Tabuk
Longikis
Kotabaru Batulicin
Cempaka
Bandara
Satui
Pelaihari 20
SULAWESI SELATAN
Grogot
18
A
SULAWESI TENGAH
Industri
New Palangkaraya
Palangkaraya
Sampit 23
Kendawangan
Kuaro Komam
Tamiang Layang
Kasongan
Sambutan
12 Bukuan 8 9 Sanga-Sanga 13 Senipah
Asam-Asam
16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25.
Bangkanai GEPP 295 MW-2016/17 Kalsel CFPP (FTP2) 200 MW-2017 Kusan HEPP 65 MW-2024 Pulang Pisau CFPP 120 MW-2015 Kalselteng-2 CFPP 200 MW-2019/20 Kalsel Peaker-1 200 MW-2017 Kalsel Peaker-2 100 MW-2021 Sampit CFPP 50 MW-2018 Kalselteng-3 CFPP 200 MW-2020/21 Kalselteng-1 CFPP 200 MW-2019/20
Figure-15. The Transmission System Development Plan in Kalimantan
18,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
GWh
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
16,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2015
HSD
2016
MFO
2017
2018
LNG
2019
Gas
2020
Coal
2021
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Figure-16. Projected Composition of Power Generation by Fuel Type in Kalseltengtimra
30
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 30
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
The requirement for diesel fuel oil (HSD) and marine fuel oil (MFO) will tend to decline. It is projected that the utilisation of fuel oil that is 450 thousand kilolitre in 2015 will be gradually reduced until it is stopped in 2018. While, the use of coal will increase from 3.1 million ton in 2015 to 10.0 million ton in 2024. The volume of gas utilization in the form of CNG and LNG will also increase from 6 bcf in 2015 to 30 bcf in 2024.
THE NORTH SULAWESI SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN The Northern part of Sulawesi system (Sulbagut system) is projected to be completed in 2017 after 150 kV transmission lines that interconnect Marisa – Moutong – Tolitoli – Buol are in place. The plan for additional power plants in Sulbagut system is quite high as it is reflected by annual reserve margin that ranges between 33% up to 64%, except in 2015-2017, the reserve margins are below 20%. This issue leads to the need for particular effort which is extending generation renting period and developing mobile power plants. The plan for obtaining a high reserve margin has an intention to anticipate the uncertainty of the completion of some generation projects, particularly the projects of Kotamobagu I and II Geothermal power plants. The power generation plan for North Sulawesi is shown in Table-14. The new power generation capacity planned during the period 2015-2024 is 1,226 MW which consists of coal fired power plants (714 MW), geothermal power plant (120 MW), gas fired turbine/engine peaking power plants with gas storage (350 MW) and hydro-electric plants (42 MW).
Table-14. Power Generation Development Plan in Northern Sulawesi PROJECTS
2015
2016
2017
2,098
2,321
2,780
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
5,263
5,804
Load Factor
GWh
3,110
3,443
3,811
4,338
4,775
%
68
68
69
70
70
70
72
72
72
73
Gross Peak Load
MW
350
387
459
508
562
622
686
755
832
913
Nett Peak Load
MW
328
365
427
472
526
586
631
700
777
857
MW
457
522
278
278
212
212
212
212
212
212
410
475
230
230
201
201
201
201
201
201
CAPACITY Installed Capacity Nett Capacity PLN
MW
245
245
205
205
176
176
176
176
176
176
IPP
MW
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
RENTAL
MW
140
205
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
100
0
105
0
0
0
0
0
Mobile Power Plant Retired & Mothballed
0
CAPACITY ADDITION RENTAL Rental CFPP Amurang (2x25)
CFPP
50
PLN ON GOING & COMMITTED Gorontalo (FTP1)
CFPP
25
25
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Sulut-Gorontalo-Tolitoli Interconnection (2017) Energy Production
31
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 31
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
Table-14. Power Generation Development Plan in Northern Sulawesi PROJECTS
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(continue)
2022
2023
2024
IPP ON GOING & COMMITTED Gorontalo (Terkendala)
CFPP
14
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION Sulut 1
CFPP
Tolitoli
CFPP
Sulut 3
CFPP
50
50
Sulbagut 1
CFPP
50
50
Sulbagut 2
CFPP
Sulbagut 3
CFPP
50
50
Poigar 2
HEPP
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Sawangan
50 25
0
100
Minahasa Peaker Gorontalo Peaker
GT/GE/ CCPP
Sulbagut Peaker
GT/GE/ CCPP
Kotamobagu (FTP2)
GeoPP
Lahendong 5 (FTP2)
GeoPP
Lahendong 6 (FTP2)
GeoPP
100
30
HEPP GT/GE/ CCPP
25
12 0
150 100 100 80
0
20 0
20
TOTAL CAPACITY ADDITION
MW
0
25
359
170
150
187
55
100
100
180
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY
MW
457
547
662
732
816
1,003
1,058
1,158
1,258
1,438
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
410
500
614
684
805
992
1,047
1,147
1,247
1,427
The projected composition of power generation by fuel type in North Sulawesi from 2015 to 2024 is shown in Figure-17. The role of oil for power generation in North Sulawesi in 2015 is remain high, at around 911GWh (43%). From 2017, the use of oil for power generation is expected to be reduced and replaced by natural gas with the availability of combined cycle gas-fired/gas-fired turbine/engine peake rusing LNG/CNG gas and coal-fired power plants. Coal-fired power generation will increase from 458 GWh (22%) in 2015 to 3,600 GWh (62%) in 2024. From 2019, power generated from coal will be higher than geothermal plants after most of the coal-fired power plant projects become operational. Power generated from geothermal plants will increase from 551 GWh (25%) in 2015 to 1,030 GWh (18%) in 2024, when Lahendong IV-V and Kotamobagu geothermal plants become operational. The oil consumption in North Sulawesi will continue to decline from 239 thousand kilolitres in 2015 and will be stopped in 2019 after non fuel oil power plants are fully operated. The use of coal is expected to increase from 347 thousand tons in 2015 to 2.7 million tons in 2024, or an increase of 8 times. LNG will be used from 2017 at 3 bcf and will increase to 7 bcf in 2024. LNG will be used to operate peaking power plants. The use of geothermal energy will continue to increase from 551 GWh in 2015 to 1,030 GWh in 2022. The increase in hydropower is relatively small since the potential is low - from 208 GWh in 2015 to 303 GWh in 2024.
32
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 32
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
7,000
6,000
5,000
GWh
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2015
2016
HSD
2017
MFO
2018
2019
LNG
Gas
2020
Coal
2021
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Figure-17. Projected composition of Power Generation by Fuel Type in Northern Sulawesi
The integration of the Sulbagsel system which comprises Central Sulawesi (Sulteng), West Sulawesi (Sulbar), South East Sulawesi (Sultra) and South Sulawesi (Sulsel), is planned to be completed in 2017. To date, Sulteng and Sultra systems are still in deficit condition, on the other hand, the power supply in South and West Sulawesi system is surplus. In order to meet long term electricity needs over the period of 2015-2024, non-oil power plant projects with a total capacity of 4,550 MW in Sulbagsel system have been planned. These projects consist of coal-fired power plants (1,240 MW), combined cycle gas-fired/gas-fired turbine/engine plants (1,120 MW) and geothermal power plants (60 MW). In order to make the most use of hydro which have large potential resources scattered in Sulsel, Sulbar, Sulteng and Sultra provinces, PLN and private sectors will develop hydro power plant with total capacity of 2,130 MW. The Power Generation Development Plan for Sulbagsel is shown in Table-15. Apart from power distribution from the power supply center to the demand center, the transmission system also aims to build an interconnection among sub-systems, connect isolated electrical systems to the grid, overcome any bottlenecks, and to meet the N-1 reliability criteria. The transmission system development plan in Sulbagsel system is shown in Figure-18. EVH 275 kV substation in Woku is planned to be the main knot for evacuating power from surrounded hydro power plants to load centers including capital city of provinces. The 275 kV transmission line is the main backbone in delivering power in Sulbagsel system.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
THE SOUTH SULAWESI SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN
33
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 33
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
Table-15. Power Generation Development Plan in Sulbagsel Projects
Unit
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Sulsel system interconnection with Palu (2014) Sulsel system interconnection with Kendari (2017) Energy Production
7,004
8,624
11,022
13,552
14,875
16,280
17,600
19,230
20,726
22,505
68
73
70
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
MW
1,178
1,345
1,798
2,243
2,451
2,680
2,895
3,164
3,407
3,694
Installed Capacity
MW
1,545
1,745
1,778
1,353
1,024
1,070
1,070
1,070
1,070
1,070
Nett Capacity
MW
1,465
1,665
1,685
1,348
1,068
1,018
1,018
1,058
1,058
1,058
PLN
MW
394
394
430
381
251
251
251
291
291
291
IPP
MW
820
820
820
767
767
767
767
767
767
767
RENTAL
MW
250
Mobile Power Plant
MW
200
50
87
178
Load Factor Gross Peak Load
GWh %
CAPACITY
250
235
200
200
Retired & Mothballed CAPACITY ADDITION PLN ON GOING & COMMITTED
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
IPP ON GOING & COMMITTED Mamuju
CFPP
Tawaeli Ekspansi
CFPP
50 30
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION Makassar Peaker
CCPP
Sulsel Peaker
CCPP
Punagaya (FTP2)
CFPP
Jeneponto 2
CFPP
Kendari 3
CFPP
Sulsel Barru 2
CFPP
Sulsel 2
CFPP
Palu 3
CFPP
Wajo
GEPP
300
150 300
100
150
100 125
125 100
100 200
200
100 20
Poso 1
HEPP
60
60
Poko
HEPP
117
117
Konawe
HEPP
50
Watunohu
HEPP
15
Lasolo
HEPP
73
Bakaru 2
HEPP
Karama (Unsolicited)
HEPP
190
Bonto Batu (FTP2)
HEPP
110
Malea (FTP2)
HEPP
90
Salu Uro
HEPP
48
Kalaena 1
HEPP
73
126
48 27
27
34
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 34
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
Table-15. Power Generation Development Plan in Sulbagsel Projects
Unit
Seko 1
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
(continue)
2021
2022
HEPP
2023 160
Buttu Batu
HEPP
Paleleng
HEPP
100
Tabulahan
HEPP
10
10
18
18
20
Masupu
HEPP GeoPP
40
Marana (FTP2)
GeoPP
20
MHPP Tersebar Sulselbar
MHPP
11
14
MHPP Tersebar PaluPoso
MHPP
5
4
MHPP Tersebar Sultra
MHPP
23
10
25
15
11
14
2
320
100
20
Bora Pulu (FTP2)
12
2024
4
MW
16
68
472
915
596
534
299
384
398
693
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY
MW
1,560
1,829
2,334
2,824
3,091
3,671
3,970
4,353
4,751
5,444
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
1,480
1,748
2,241
2,819
3,135
3,619
3,917
4,341
4,738
5,431
Pandu
Paniki P iki
Sario
eling g Teling Tasikk Ria a
Leok
Tolitoli
Bolontio
16
KALIMANTAN TIMUR
12 13
GORONTALO
8
Buroko
Lolak
Isimu
Marisa
Tilamuta
G
Gobar
Limboto
U
Bintauna
P
Otam
Botupingge Suwawa
9 10
Belang
Tutuyan
14
15
Tambu
11
A
U
Bangkir
Moutong
U4 mo ohon SULAWESI 525 Tomohon Tonseal To o lama Tonsealama Kawangk Kawangkoan Kaw aw w koan 6 U Ratahan Ratah R t h han UTARA Lopana 7P
Molibagu
Likupang
12
17 18
Sindue
U
Donggala Silae
Parigi Talise Petobo
Palu Baru
Poso
Mamuju Baru Mamuju
Toili
SULAWESI TENGAH
U
Tentena
52
Kolonedale
Ratahan Lopana
ke GI Belang
ke GI Barru
Malili
Polman Bakaru
32
Bungku
Luwu Enrekang
Lasusua
45 A
58 53
Kolaka
Kendari
Soppeng
SULAWESI SELATAN To Tonasa Mar Maros B Bosowa Daya Daya Baru
Punagaya
42 4143
JNP
53
Bosowa
Daya Baru
Tello
Sungguminasa
ke GI Tallasa Kasipute
56
Raha Pure
Sinjai
Bulukumba Bantaeng Smelter
Maros
Kima
Andolo
Malaompana
Bantaeng Tallasa
58 Tallo Lama Bontoala Panakukang Tanjung Bunga
Bone
Kajuara
G Mandai Daya
54 26 27
Unaaha
40
Barru
ello Tello Tallolama Panakkukang asa Sungguminasa
21 22
Andowia
50 A
Sidrap Keera Sengkang
51 A
57
Pare
gkep Pangkep Mandai
Tonasa
SULAWESI TENGGARA
Palopo Makale
39
ke GI/GITET Sidrap
Pangkep
Siwa
Pinrang
8
Wotu
Rantepao
31 A 3537 3638 A A
P7
ke GI Otam
24 A 30
Bitung
U4 Tomohon Tonsealama Kawangkoan
G
44
Masamba
33 34
Majene
23
29 Mamasa
Ranomut
Kema Teling 3 Sawangan
Tasik Ria
56
SULAWESI BARAT 25 A
Paniki
Mauro
Sigi
28 A
Pandu
Luwuk
Sario
Pasangkayu
Topoyo
Bunta
Ampana
P 1920
Bau-Bau
46 48 47
Pasarwajo
55 49
ke GITET Bantaeng
1. PLTG Minahasa Peaker GTPP 150 - 2017 Minahasa Peaker 150 MWMW - 2017 2. PLTG Sulbagut Peaker GTPP 100 - 2024 Sulbagut Peaker 100 MWMW - 2024 3. PLTA Sawangan HEPP1212 MW - 2020 Sawangan MW - 2020 4. PLTU Sulut-3 CFPP100 100MW MW– 2019/20 – 2019/20 Sulut-3 5. PLTU Sulbagut-2 CFPP200 200MW MW – 2022/23 Sulbagut-2 – 2022/23 6. PLTU Amurang CFPP 50 MW - 2017 SewaRental Amurang 50 MW - 2017 7. PLTP Lahendong V GeoPP 20 MW – 2017 Lahendong V 20 MW – 2017 8. PLTP Lahendong VI GeoPP 20 MW – 2018 Lahendong VI 20 MW – 2018 9. PLTU Sulut Sulut I CFPP 50MW MW- 2018 - 2018 I 50 10. PLTP Kotamobagu GeoPP - 2024 Kotamobagu - 80 80 MWMW - 2024 11. PLTA Poigar-2 HEPP3030MW MW - 2021 Poigar-2 - 2021 12. PLTU Sulbagut-1 CFPP100 100 MW – 2019/20 Sulbagut-1 MW – 2019/20 13. PLTU Gorontalo (FTP1) CFPP MW – 2016/17 Gorontalo (FTP1) 5050 MW – 2016/17 14. PLTU Sulbagut-3 CFPP100 100 MW – 2019/20 Sulbagut-3 MW – 2019/20 15. Gorontalo GorontaloPeaker Peaker100 GTPP MW - 2018 MW 100 - 2018 16. PLTU Toli-Toli CFPP50 MW– –2020/21 2020/21 Toli-Toli 50 MW Palu-3 - 2018 17. PLTU Palu-3 CFPP100 100MW MW - 2018 Tawaeli Ekspansi 3030 MW - 2016 18. PLTU Tawaeli Ekspansi CFPP MW - 2016 Masaingi (FTP2) 20 MW - 2022 19. PLTP Masaingi (FTP2) GeoPP 20 MW - 2022 Borapulu 40 MW – 2022 20. PLTP Borapulu GeoPP 40 MW – 2022 Makassar 21. PLTGU Makassar PeakerPeaker CCPP450 450MW–2017/18 MW–2017/18 Sulsel Peaker 22. PLTGU Sulsel Peaker CCPP 450 450MW–2018/19 MW–2018/19 23. PLTA Poso-1 – 2021/22 Poso-1 HEPP120 120MW MW – 2021/22 Seko-1 – 2023/24 24. PLTA Seko-1 HEPP480 480MW MW – 2023/24 Salu HEPP Uro 95 25. PLTA Salu Uro 95MW MW– 2020/21 – 2020/21 Kendari (Ekspansi) 1010 MWMW - 2015 26. PLTU Kendari (Ekspansi) CFPP - 2015 Kendari-3 - 2018 27. PLTU Kendari-3 CFPP100 100MW MW - 2018 Karama MW – 2024 28. PLTA Karama HEPP190 190 MW – 2024 Mamuju (FTP2) 5050 MW - 2017 29. PLTU Mamuju (FTP2) CFPP MW - 2017 30. PLTA Kalaena-1 MW – 2021/22 Kalaena-1 HEPP5353 MW – 2021/22 - 2020 31. PLTA MaleaMalea HEPP9090MW MW - 2020 32. PLTA Paleleng MW – 2021/22 Paleleng HEPP4040 MW – 2021/22 Tabulahan MW – 2020/21 33. PLTA Tabulahan HEPP2020 MW – 2020/21 34. PLTA Masupu – 2020/21 34. Masupu HEPP3535MW MW – 2020/21 35. PLTA – 2021/22 35. Poko Poko HEPP234 234MW MW – 2021/22 36. PLTA Bakaru II 126 MW - 2020 36. Bakaru II HEPP 126 MW - 2020 37. PLTA MW - 2024 37. BontoBonto BatuBatu HEPP110 110 MW - 2024 38. PLTA MW – 2022/23 38. ButtuButtu BatuBatu HEPP200 200 MW – 2022/23 39. PLTU Barru-2 MW - 2018 39. SulselSulsel Barru-2 CFPP100 100 MW - 2018 40. PLTMG Wajo 20 20 MW MW -- 2016 40. Wajo GEPP 2016 41. PLTU Sulsel-2 – 2019/20 41. Sulsel-2 CFPP400 400MW MW – 2019/20 42. PLTU Punagaya – 2017/18 42. Punagaya CFPP200 200MW MW – 2017/18 43. PLTU Jeneponto-2 MW – 2018/19 43. Jeneponto-2 CFPP250 250 MW – 2018/19 44. PLTMG Luwuk 40 MW 2017 44. Luwuk GEPP 40 MW - 2017 45. PLTA Wotunohu MW - 2023 45. Wotunohu HEPP1515 MW - 2023 46. PLTU Bau-Bau MW - 2015 46. Bau-Bau CFPPIPP IPP1414 MW - 2015 47. PLTU Bau-Bau – 2019 47. Bau-Bau CFPP5050MW MW – 2019 48. PLTMG Bau-Bau 30 MW – 2016 48. Bau-Bau GEPP 30 MW – 2016 49. PLTU Wangi-Wangi MW-201 49. Wangi-Wangi CFPP6 6 MW-201 50. PLTA Konawe – 2023 50. Konawe HEPP5050MW MW – 2023 51. PLTA Lasolo 145 MW – 51. Lasolo HEPP 145 MW2023/24 – 2023/24 52. MPP Sulbagut (Amurang) 100 MW2016 52. Sulbagut (Amurang) MPP 100 MW2016 53. MPP Sulsel (Tello) MW2016 53. Sulsel (Tello) MPP5050 MW2016 54. MPP Sultra (Kendari) 5050 MW2016 54. Sultra (Kendari) MPP MW2016 55. MPP Wangi-Wangi 2016 55. Wangi-Wangi MPP5 5MWMW2016 56. MPP Bombana 2016 56. Bombana MPP1010MWMW2016 57. MPP Kolaka Utara MW2016 57. Kolaka Utara MPP5 5 MW2016 58. MPP Sulsel (Tallo Lama) 100 MW2016 58. Sulsel (Tallo Lama) MPP 100 MW2016
Figure-18. The Transmission System Development Plan for Sulawesi
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
TOTAL CAPACITY ADDITION
35
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 35
8/27/2015 4:30:32 PM
There are 8,963 kms transmission lines projected with US$ 1,953 investment required for developing transmission system in Sulawesi during 2015-2024. Projected power generation in Sulbagsel from 2015 to 2024 is shown in Figure-19. Power generation from oil in 2015 is expected to remain high, at 1,085 GWh (15%). However, beginning from 2019, power generated from oil will be replaced by power generated from natural gas in the form of LNG when the Makassar gas turbine/engine peaker plant and coal fired power plant become operational. Power generated from gas fired power plants will increase nominally but decrease in terms of percentage, i.e. from 2,009 GWh (27%) in 2015 to 4,114 GWh (18%) in 2024. This is due to additional capacity from gas fired power plants (Sengkang combined cycle gas-fired plant) owned by the private sector and peaker power plants running on LNG. Power generated from coal fired power plants will increase from 2,452 GWh (33%) in 2015 to 9,320 GWh (41%) in 2024. Power generated by hydropower will increase from 1,982 GWh (26%) in 2015 to 8,650 GWh (38%) in 2024 when several hydropower projects become operational, namely Bonto Batu, Malea, Karama, Bakaru II, Poko, Poso II, Konawe and Watunohu. The oil consumption in the Sulbagsel system is expected to decrease from 280 thousands kiloliters in 2015 and will be stopped in 2019 after after non-fuel oil plants become operational. The use of coal will continue to increase from 1.8 million tons in 2015 to 7.0 million tons in 2024, or an increase of 4 times. The volume of natural gas usage, including LNG, will also continue to rise from 20 bcf in 2015 to 38 bcf in 2024. LNG will only be used for operating peaking power plants. Production from geothermal plants amounting to 421 GWh will commence in 2024.
25,000
15,000
GWh
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
20,000
10,000
5,000
2015
2016
HSD
2017
MFO
2018
2019
LNG
Gas
2020
Coal
2021
2022
Geothermal
2023
2024
Hydro
Figure-19. Projected Composition of Power Generation by Fuel Type in Sulbagsel
36
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 36
8/27/2015 4:30:33 PM
THE PLANNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOMBOK SYSTEM Lombok 150 kV power system was in operation since 2013 after Jeranjang Unit 3 (1x25 MW) was operated to supply the demand for Mataram area. To date, the system has been expanded to East Lombok system by an interconnection with Pringgabaya substation after 150 kV transmission lines are completed. In order to satisfy the long term demand for 2015-2024, there is several non-fuel oil power plants with total capacity of 685 MW has been planned to be developed in Lombok system. The projects are mini-hydro power plants (5 MW), coal fired powerplats (450 MW), steam gas power plants (210 MW) and geothermal power plants (20 MW). Table-16 shows generation development plan in Lombok system.
Table-16. Power Generation Development Plan in Lombok System Projects
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
1,204
1,341
1,445
1,642
1,789
2,023
2,200
2,395
2,580
2024
Demand Energy Production Load Factor
GWh
2,779
%
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
Gross Peak Load
MW
214
238
257
292
318
359
391
425
458
493
Nett Peak Load
MW
196
217
239
264
290
318
349
381
414
449
Installed Capacity
MW
221
221
124
96
31
31
31
31
31
31
237
237
90
74
27
27
27
27
27
27
PLN
85
85
85
68
22
22
22
22
22
22
IPP
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
97
97
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
17
46
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
60
50
50
Nett Capacity
RENTAL MOBILE POWER PLANT
MW
Retired & Mothballed CAPACITY ADDITION RENTAL Reantal CFPP Lombok
CFPP
50
PLN ON GOING & COMMITTED Santong
MHPP
Lombok (FTP1)
CFPP
Lombok Peaker
CCPP
25
25 150
IPP ON GOING & COMMITTED Lombok Timur
CFPP
MHPP Tersebar
MHPP
50 2
4
PLANNED CAPACITY ADDITION Lombok (FTP2)
CFPP
Lombok 2
CFPP
Lombok 3
CFPP
Lombok Peaker 2
GT/GE/ CCPP
50
50 50
50
60
Sembalun (FTP2)
GeoPP
TOTAL CAPACITY ADDITION
20
MW
27
TOTAL SYSTEM CAPACITY
MW
249
TOTAL NETT CAPACITY
MW
266
25
200
104
100
50
20
269
372
448
483
533
553
613
663
713
286
339
426
479
529
549
609
659
709
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Supply
37
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 37
8/27/2015 4:30:33 PM
In period of 2015-2024, total capacity for additional power plants is approximately 685 MW with significant reserve margin number which lies between 32% to 66%, except for the years 2015-2017, when reserve margins are below 20%. Hence, there are particular efforts needed, and mobile power plants option is chosen. The expansion plan for 150 kV transmission system in Lombok is given in Figure-20. The expansion planning for 150 kV transmission system and substations is intended to evacuate power from generation to load centers. Moreover, it also has a purpose to prevent bottleneck as well as to increase operational reliability and flexibility. Therefore, it is planned that 150 kV transmission lines will be expanded surrounding Lombok island (looping system). The development of the transmission grid throughout Lombok system for the period 2015-2024 covers 588 kms and requires investments of US$ 99 billion Lombok 3 CFPP 100 MW (2023/24)
Sembalun (FTP2) GeoPP 20 MW (2021)
U
Kokok Putih MHPP 3,8 MW (2013)
Lombok Timur CFPP 2x25 MW (2017)
GI Bayan ACSR 2x240 mm2 35 km - 2018
Santong MHPP 0,85 MW (2014)
A
ACSR 2x240 mm2 41 km (2018)
A P
GI Tanjung Segara MHPP 5,8 MW (2014)
U ACSR 2x240 mm2 15 km 2021
Lombok (FTP2) CFPP 2x50 MW (2018/19)
U
A ACSR 1x240 mm2 12 km - 2015
Lombok Peaker CCPP 150 MW (2017) Lombok Peaker-2 60 MW (2022)
Lombok 2 CFPP 100 MW (2019/20)
ACSR 1x240 mm2 15 km 2017
GI Pringgabaya
G
0
GI Mataram
G
Ampenan Diesel PP 55 MW
0
Kabel Tanah 5.6 km - 2015 Lombok MPP 50 MW (2016)
GI Ampenan
D Taman Diesel PP 9,6 MW
D GI Mantang
U
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Lombok APBN CFPP 1x25 MW
GI Selong GI Jeranjang
U
Lombok (FTP 1) CFPP 2x25 MW (2015/16)
ACSR 1x240 mm2 15 km - 2014
PT PLN (Persero)
SYSTEM PLANNING DIVISION LOMBOK SYSTEM
GI Sekotong GI Sengkol ACSR 1x240 mm 10,5 km - 2014
2
/ / / / / / / /
GI Kuta / / / /
500 kV SS Existing / Plan 275 kV SS Existing / Plan 150 kV SS Existing / Plan 70 kV Existing / Plan 500/275 kV SS Existing / Plan 500/275/150 kV SS Existing / Plan 275/150 kV SS Existing / Plan 150/70 kV SS Existing / Plan T/L 70 kV Existing / Plan T/L 150 kV Existing / Plan T/L 275 kV Existing / Plan T/L 500 kV Existing / Plan
U G P A GU MG M D
/ / / / / / / /
U G P A GU MG M D
CFPP Existing / Plan GTPP Existing / Plan GeoPP Existing / Plan HEPP Existing / Plan CCPP Existing / Plan GEPP Existing / Plan MHPP Existing / Plan Diesel PP Existing / Plan Existing Plan
Edit October 2014
Figure-20. The Development plan for Lombok Transmission System
Projected energy production for Lombok system from 2015 to 2024 is shown in Figure-21. The role of fuel oil in 2015 is still significant, 852 GWh (70%). However, from 2018, the role will be fully replaced by natural gas in from of CNG, in line with the operation of Lombok peaking steam gas power plant and coal fired plants. In energy production number, the use of gas is higher, however, in percentage, it is lower. The production is 329 GWh (23%) in 2015 and become 386 GWh (15%) in 2024. This is due to the addition of Lombok Peaker 2 gas/gas engine/steam gas power plant. The role of coal fuel is dominant. Its production is 315 GWh (26%) in 2015 and increases up to 2.213 GWh (80%) in 2024. Similarly, the role of hydro power plants also increases. The production is 36 GWh (3%) in 2015 and increase up to 40 GWh (1%) in 2024, in line with the operation of mini hydro projects throughout Lombok system. Whilst, Geothermal in Lombok system will contribute approximately 139 GWh in 2021.
38
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 38
8/27/2015 4:30:33 PM
The requirement of fuel oil in Lombok system will be continuously declined. In 2015, 230 thousand kilolitres fuel oil is needed. This requirement will be stopped in 2018 when non-fuel oil power plants are fully operated in the system. The utilisation of coal fuel increase from 239 thousands tons in 2015 to 1,6 million tons in 2024 or increase 7 times. The volume of natura gas used in form of LNG will also increase. It is 2 bcf in 2016 and become 3 bcf in 2024. Gas (LNG and GND) is used as a fuel for peaking generation. 3,000
2,500
GWh
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2015
2016
HSD
2017
MFO
2018
LNG
2019
Gas
2020
2021
Coal
2022
2023
Geothermal
2024
Hydro
The supply of gas for electricity system for East Indonesia Region is shown by Tabel-17.
Tabel-17. The Gas Supply Plan for East Indonesia Region No
Power Plant
Gas Supplier
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
EASTERN INDONESIA 1
Pontianak Peaker
LNG PLN Batam (potential)
2
Bangkanai
Salamander
3
Kalsel Peaker 1
JOB Simenggaris
4
Kalsel Peaker 2
JOB Simenggaris (potential)
5
Nunukan
Pertamina EP TAC Sembakung
6
Nunukan 2
Medco South Sebuku Bengara (potential)
7
Tanjung Batu
TAC Semco
8
Tanjung Batu
Bontang
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
Kaltim APBN
Bontang
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
10
20
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3 3
3
4
10
Sambera
Bontang
10
10
10
10
11
Kaltim Peaker 2
JOB Simenggaris
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
12
Batakan
JOB Simenggaris
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
Kaltim Peaker 3
Salamander Lapangan Tutung (potential)
5
5
5
13
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Figure-21. Projected Electricity Production by Type of Fuel in Lombok System
39
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 39
8/27/2015 4:30:33 PM
Tabel-17. The Gas Supply Plan for East Indonesia Region No
Power Plant
14
Tanjung Selor
Perusda Nusa Serambi Persada
15
Senipah
Total Senipah
16
Minahasa Peaker
LNG Sengkang (Wasambo)
17
Gorontalo Peaker
18
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
LNG Sengkang (Wasambo)
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Luwuk
Perusda Banggai (Cendanapura)
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Sengkang
Energy Equity Epic (Sengkang)
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
20
Makassar Peaker
LNG Sengkang (Wasambo)
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
Lombok Peaker
Marine CNG dari Gresik
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
22
Sumbawa
PGN (potential)
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
23
Bima
PGN (potential)
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
24
Kupang
PGN (potential)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
25
Maumere
PGN (potential)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
26
Ambon
MEDCO Matindok (potential)
10
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
27
Maluku Tersebar
Salawati (potential)
5
5
5
10
10
10
10
10
28
Halmahera
Salawati (potential)
5
5
5
5
10
10
10
10
10
29
Jayapura
BP Tangguh (potential)
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
30
Manokwari
BP Tangguh (potential)
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
31
Papua dan Pabar Tersebar
BP Tangguh (potential)
10
10
15
15
15
15
15
15
242
252
262
277
272
277
277
277
19
TOTAL
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Gas Supplier
(continue)
35
35
5
42
141
THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY PLN has prepared a development plan for New and Renewable Energy (EBT) as shown in Table-18. The development plan comprises of : • Mini hydro power plants: PLN encourages the development of mini-hydro plants by the private sector to meet the local demand and to be distributed to the PLN grid; • Wind turbine generating plants: As the potential for wind power in Indonesia is limited, the development of wind turbine generating plants will be limited to areas with wind power potential; • Biomass: PLN intends to build biomass power plants in the areas with abundance of biomass supply. • Marine energy: Even though the potential of marine energy is estimated to be large, the technology and economics of marine power plant development are still unknown, hence PLN will conduct small scale pilot tests as research and development projects; • Biofuel: Depending on the readiness of the biofuel market, PLN prepares to utilize biofuel if it is available; • Solar power plants: PLN will develop solar plants, especially in outer and isolated areas to improve the electrification ratios.
40
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 40
8/27/2015 4:30:33 PM
Development of Solar Power Plants Taking into account the wide geographical distribution of the population and difficulties in reaching remote areas, PLN plans to build solar power plants as follows: centralized/communal solar power plants (independent or hybrid operating mode). The components of hybrid solar power plants will be adapted to the potential of particular prime energy available in the areas. With hybrid method, it is expected that the electricity system can be operated optimally. The hybrid configuration is not only planned for the locations that are not electrified yet, but also for the locations where fuel oil power plants or any similar types of power plants are operated. The power plants will be operated in hybrid mode with the existing power plants. The development of these solar power plants is intended to electrify remote areas in order to increase electrification ratio, to prevent additional used of oil proportionally due to an addition of load the system served by diesel power plants, and to decrease production cost in certain areas where the transportation cost for fuel oil are expensive; e.g. around the mountain peaks of Jayawijaya Papua.
No
Renewable
Capacity
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Total
1
MHPP
MW
67
40
156
172
123
135
272
297
130
150
1542
2
Solar PV
MWp
6
20
25
30
35
35
35
40
45
50
321
3
Wind PP
MW
0
40
40
40
40
40
50
50
50
50
400
4
Biomass PP
MW
15
30
40
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
435
5
Ocean PP
MW
0
1
1
3
3
5
5
5
5
10
38
6
SPD CPO
MW
0
30
30
40
40
45
45
50
50
55
385
7
PTMTD-LCS
MW
0
0
15
20
25
35
35
40
40
40
250
Thousand kL
350
500
550
550
600
600
650
700
750
800
6050
MW
88
161
307
355
316
345
492
532
370
405
3,371
8
Bio-Fuel TOTAL
THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR ISOLATED POWER SYSTEMS Besides the 6 interconnected power systems, there are more than 100 isolated systems spread throughout the Eastern Indonesia region. The systems are spread over the provinces of Maluku, North Maluku, Papua, West Papua, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Riau Islands as well as Nias island, Belitung, Buton, Selayar, Karimun Java, Bawean and many other islands.
CO2 EMISSION PROJECTION The system planning process in RUPTL 2015-2024 does not take into account the CO2 emissions cost as one of variable costs. However, this does not mean that RUPTL ignoring the CO2 emissions reduction. It can be seen from the number of geothermal and hydropower power plant candidates set into the electrical system, even though they are not the lowest cost solution. The use of supercritical boiler technology and ultra supercritical in Java also prove that PLN concerned with the efforts to reduce CO2 emissions from power generation. The amount of emissions is calculated from the amount of fuel used and converted into CO2 emissions (in tonnes of CO2) by using a multiplier factor (emission factor) issued by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Table-18. Development Plan for New and Renewable Energy
41
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 41
8/27/2015 4:30:34 PM
Figure-22 shows the CO2 emissions that would be generated with electricity production and fuel mix as shown in Figure 5. From Figure-22 it can be seen that CO2 emissions in Indonesia will increase from 201 million tons in 2015 to 383 million tonnes by 2024. Of the 383 million tons of emissions, 333 million tons (87%) comes from burning coal.
Juta tCO2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Biomass
HSD
MFO
LNG
Gas
Coal
2023
2024
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
Figure-22. CO2 Emission per Fuel Type (Indonesia)
The average grid emission factor for Indonesia in 2015 was 0.867 kg CO2/kWh, will increase to 0.934 kgCO2/kWh in 2017. The grid emission factorin 2018 also quite high due to the delay of geothermal and hydro power plant projects. The grid emission factor will further decline due to the operation of geothermal power plants and hydro projects so that the average grid emission factor in 2024 became 0.758 kgCO2/kWh.
CARBON FINANCE PROJECT PLN will utilise carbon finance opportunities through the UNFCCC or outside the UNFCCC framework. Carbon finance project implementation will be applied to all activities within the PLN, which has the potential to obtain carbon finance. Since the year 2002 PLN is aware of funding opportunities of carbon through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and do some assessment of potential CDM projects, and results to date PLN has signed several ERPA (Emission Reduction Purchase Agreements). In addition PLN also develop projects through the VCM (Voluntary Carbon Mechanism). Since the expiration of the first commitment of the Kyoto Protocol by the end of 2012, the use of carbon finance will be adjusted to the new carbon financing mechanisms, both within and outside the UNFCCC framework of the UNFCCC.
42
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 42
8/27/2015 4:30:34 PM
RISK ANALYSIS Based on the probability and impact if the risks occur, the risks have been mapped as shown in Figure-23. The assessment of the risks and impact have been conducted with qualitative method based on PLN’s experience in carrying out similar programs in the past, and PLN’s experience in handling such risks in the past. Determination of the risk impact is based on the impact to company cash flow and the impact on smooth operation of the company
Very Large
E
E.1
E.2
E.3
E.4
E.5 3 10
D.1
D.2
D.3
D.4 7 11
Medium
4 5
D
D.5
1
2 9
C
C.1
C.2
C.3
C.4
C.5 6 8 12
Small
B
B.1
Very Small
B.2
B.3
B.4
B.5
A
A.1
A.2
A.3
A.4
A.5
1
2
3
4
5
Not Significant
Minor
Medium
Significant
Disaster
SCALE OF IMPACT
Description : EXTREME RISK:
HIGH RISK:
3 4 5
Limited funding capacity risk PLN and IPP project completion delay risk Unconformity power plant and transmission line risk
10
Increase of primary energy price risk
1 2 6 7 8 9 11 12
Change in electricity sector order/policy risk Unrealized electricity tariff rationalization risk Non-oil primary energy supply constrain risk Electricity consumption higher than demand projection risk Power plant and transmission performance degradation risk Transmission line system bottlenecking risk Environmental risk Disaster risk
Figure-23. Mapping Long-Term Risk Profile for 2015 - 2024
CONCLUSION Assuming the economic growth during the next ten years average 6.8% and increasing from actual electricity demand in 2014, projected electricity sales in 2024 are estimated to reach 464 TWh or a growth rate of 8.7% over the next 10 years. The peak load in 2024 is projected to reach 74.5 GW. In order to meet electricity demand, the development of new power plants during the period 20152024 with total capacity of 70.1 GW has been planned.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
LEVEL OF PROBABILITY
Large
43
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 43
8/27/2015 4:30:34 PM
In line with the development of aforementioned power plants, the development of 59 thousands kms of transmission system will be required, consisting of 5,800 kms of 500 kV AC EHV transmission lines, 1,100 kms of 500 kV HVDC transmission lines, 462kmsof 250kV HVDC transmission lines, 8,400 kms of 275 kV AC transmission lines, 40,400 kms of 150 kV HV transmission lines and 3,200 kms of 70kV HV transmission lines. The additional transformer capacity required include 145,400 MVA consisting of 78,400 MVA 150/20 kV transformers, 2,500 MVA 70/20 kV and 34,700 MVA 500/150 kV inter-bus transformers (IBT), 20,600 MVA 275/150kVIBT, 700 MVA 150/70 kV IBT, 5,000 MVA 500/275 kV IBT. In anticipation of electricity sales growth during the period 2015-2024, it will require additional 164,400 kms of medium voltage grids, 138,600 kms of low voltage grid and 42,500 MVA of distribution transformer capacities. The overall investment required for power generation, transmission and distribution for the period 2015 – 2024 to meet the requirement of electrical power infrastructure development in Indonesia is US$ 132.2 billion, consisting of power generation investment (including IPP) of US$ 97.0 billion, transmission system investment of US$ 20.6 billion and distribution system of US$ 14.5 billion.
Executive Summary Electricity Supply Business Plan PT PLN (Persero) 2015-2024
The funds for PLN investment will be met by PLN internal funds, loan/debt and the government equity participation. PLN’s internal funding capacity is limited and as such, all funds required for investment will be obtained from debt. PLN’s investment needs to be supported by increasing capacity for selffunding and maintaining the ratio of debt to PLN’s assets, so that it would continue to support the development of electrical power supply. The role of the government equity participation each year will be significant because it is politically difficult to raise electricity tariff to a level higher than the basic generating cost (BPP) in the near term.
44
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd 44
8/27/2015 4:30:34 PM
LO Bk-3 Summary RUPTL (2015-2024) English.indd ii
8/27/2015 4:30:27 PM
View more...
Comments
